November 8th 2024.
Last week, the Republican party had a lot to celebrate in Pennsylvania as they achieved historic victories. Not only did they secure the crucial presidential electoral votes, but they also gained two seats in the US House delegation and swept all four statewide offices up for grabs, including a US Senate seat. This is a significant win for the party, especially since they had previously lost six consecutive presidential elections in the state.
This trend of success was also seen in other "blue wall" states such as Michigan and Wisconsin, both located in the Rust Belt. Despite losing in 2020, President Donald Trump once again came out on top in these states, solidifying his position as a formidable force in American politics. However, Democrats were able to hold on to key Senate races in both states, albeit by a narrow margin.
Out of all the states, Pennsylvania saw the most significant shift towards the Republican party. This came as no surprise as it was already predicted to be a crucial battleground state this year. Voters in Pennsylvania were dissatisfied with the current state of affairs and this worked in favor of the Republicans. The economy was a major concern for them, and it ultimately influenced their decision at the polls.
A survey conducted by AP VoteCast revealed that about one-third of voters, including those from the blue wall states, felt that their families were financially falling behind. This was a significant increase from 2020 when only two in ten voters felt this way. In the previous election, the majority of these financially strapped voters had voted for President Joe Biden. However, this time, about two-thirds of them supported Trump.
Berwood Yost, director of the Centre for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, explained that there were several factors working against the Democrats among swing voters. The deteriorating personal finances, fueled by inflation, and a growing sense of blame towards Biden were among the biggest challenges faced by the party. Despite Vice President Kamala Harris running a strong campaign, she was unable to overcome these headwinds.
Yost also added that the overall mood of the electorate was quite negative, and this was reflected in their voting patterns. Voters took out their frustration on the incumbent party, which ultimately worked in favor of the Republicans. Interestingly, some voters' perception of Trump's presidency had improved with time. In Pennsylvania, only 40% of voters approved of Biden's job performance, while 54% had approved of Trump when he was president. This was a significant increase from four years ago when Trump's approval in the state was only 49%.
Trump's victory in Pennsylvania was by a margin of about two percent, with votes still being counted. This was three times the margin of his 2016 victory and a significant improvement from his defeat in 2020 when he lost to Biden by just over one percent. Similarly, he won Wisconsin and Michigan by a narrow margin, cementing his position as a strong contender in these states.
In Pennsylvania, Trump's popularity grew in traditionally Democratic counties, including Philadelphia and its surrounding suburbs, which had strongly voted against him in the past two elections. In the rural areas and exurbs, where he had a significant following, his margins also increased significantly.
This popularity also played a role in David McCormick's victory over three-term Democratic Senator Bob Casey. It is believed that Trump's influence helped the Republican party reclaim the Senate seat that they had lost in 2022 when Democrat John Fetterman replaced retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey. Additionally, the Republicans gained a two-seat majority in the state's congressional delegation, shifting the balance from 9-8 in favor of Democrats to a 10-7 majority for the Republicans. This is a significant boost for the party in their fight to retain control of the House.
For the first time in over 40 years, Republicans will also hold all three statewide row offices, including treasurer, auditor general, and attorney general. The latter position gained national attention four years ago when Trump sued to overturn his defeat in 2020. However, despite these victories, there was little change in the legislative seats, with Republicans expected to maintain their majority in the state Senate and hoping to overturn Democrats' one-seat majority in the state House.
This past week, the Republican party experienced a series of major victories in Pennsylvania, securing the state's crucial electoral votes for the presidential election, gaining two seats in the US House of Representatives, and sweeping all four statewide offices, including a US Senate seat. This remarkable success has solidified Donald Trump's status as a two-time winner in Pennsylvania, after six consecutive losses for the Republican party in previous presidential elections. Similar outcomes were seen in Michigan and Wisconsin, two other states that were previously considered part of the "blue wall" but were ultimately won by Trump in 2016 and 2020, respectively.
Despite these significant wins for the Republican party, Democrats were able to hold on to key Senate races in Michigan and Wisconsin, albeit by a narrow margin. The election results in each state played out differently, with the most notable Republican victories occurring in Pennsylvania. This state was quickly identified as the most pivotal swing state of the year, where a growing dissatisfaction with the current state of affairs worked in favor of the Republican party. Voters were deeply concerned about the state of the economy and this issue played a crucial role in their decision-making.
According to AP VoteCast, a survey of over 120,000 voters nationwide, approximately one-third of voters, including those in the blue wall states, expressed that they believed their families were falling behind financially. This was a significant increase from the 2020 election, where only 20% of voters felt this way. In 2020, a majority of these financially struggling voters cast their ballots for Joe Biden, but this year, two-thirds of them showed their support for Trump. This shift in voting patterns can be attributed to a combination of factors, including the deteriorating personal finances of swing voters, propelled by inflation, and a growing sense of dissatisfaction with Biden's leadership.
Berwood Yost, the director of the Centre for Opinion Research at Franklin & Marshall College in Pennsylvania, noted that Democrats faced many challenges in appealing to swing voters, given the negative mood of the electorate. The deteriorating personal finances of these voters, coupled with the perception that Biden was to blame, made it difficult for the Democratic party to gain support. Despite a strong campaign from Vice President Kamala Harris, the headwinds were too strong to overcome.
Interestingly, some voters' perception of Trump's presidency has improved over time. According to VoteCast, only 40% of Pennsylvania voters approved of Biden's job performance, while 54% approved of Trump's performance when he was president. This is a significant shift from four years ago when Trump's approval rating in Pennsylvania was 49%. Trump's victory over Harris in Pennsylvania was by a margin of approximately 2%, with votes still being counted. This is three times the margin of his 2016 win and a significant improvement from his 2020 defeat by Biden, where he lost by just over 1%.
In Wisconsin, Trump's victory margin was less than 1%, mirroring his win in 2016 but a slight improvement from his 2020 loss by approximately 0.5%. In Michigan, Trump won by a margin of around 80,000 votes, significantly higher than his 2016 victory of 11,000 votes but still half the margin of his 2020 defeat by Biden.
Trump's popularity in Pennsylvania was evident in the Democratic stronghold of Philadelphia and the heavily populated suburbs, which had previously swung against him in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. In contrast, Trump's support in exurbs and rural areas grew substantially.
The Republican party also gained a significant advantage in the fight for control of the House, with a two-seat pickup shifting the state's congressional delegation from a 9-8 Democrat majority to a 10-7 Republican majority. This victory, along with the success in securing the US Senate seat previously held by Democrat John Fetterman, who replaced retiring Republican Senator Pat Toomey, has given the GOP a much-needed boost in their efforts to maintain control of the House.
For the first time since 1980, Republicans have secured all three statewide row offices, including treasurer, auditor general, and attorney general. The latter position gained national attention four years ago when Trump filed a lawsuit to overturn his 2020 defeat. The legislative seats in Pennsylvania saw minimal changes, with the Republican party expected to retain their state Senate majority and potentially overturn the Democrats' one-seat majority in the state House. Overall, the Republican party's victories in Pennsylvania have made a significant impact, setting the stage for a potential shift in the political landscape of the state.
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