April 6th 2025.
How do trade wars actually come to an end? It's a question that often gets overlooked in the midst of all the rhetoric and posturing, but it's an important one to consider. To answer it, we must first look at how wars in general come to an end. And the truth is, once they've started, it's not easy to make them stop.
Unlike traditional wars, trade and diplomacy are conducted largely behind closed doors. This is not only due to the need for secrecy, but also because the details of negotiations can be quite technical and uninteresting to the general public. For example, discussions about tariffs on dairy, soy, and auto parts may not make for exciting news debates. And while summit meetings between world leaders may grab the headlines, the real work of resolving disputes happens in the background through less flashy, but more meaningful, meetings between diplomats.
Of course, disagreements may still linger after these meetings, but most countries prefer to maintain the status quo rather than escalate towards violence. However, when a trade war does break out, it's not easy to control. The initiating side may have their own plans and strategies, but they cannot predict the response of the other nation. As boxer Mike Tyson famously put it, "everyone has a plan until they get punched in the face."
Ultimately, wars end when both sides reach a point where they have had enough. This usually happens when the damage and suffering become too great for either side to bear. Alternatively, wars can end when one side is strong enough to force the other to surrender, much like a schoolyard fight between a larger and smaller child. However, trade wars have another complicating factor: national pride and survival. This is why negotiations and diplomacy often take place out of the public eye. When national pride becomes intertwined with the issue, public opinion can quickly turn against any attempts at resolution.
Take, for example, the current trade war between the United States and China. President Trump has imposed tariffs on Chinese goods and threatened even more if China retaliates. But when China did respond with their own tariffs, the situation quickly escalated. Some argue that these tariffs will ultimately hurt the country imposing them, as their own consumers will end up paying the higher prices. However, the term "trade war" is not just a catchy phrase - it accurately describes the situation at hand. Both sides are actively trying to damage each other, and the consequences are very real.
It's a similar story with Canada. After Trump imposed tariffs on Canadian goods, he warned them not to retaliate or else he would increase the tariffs even more. Of course, Canada did respond, and now so has China. This puts Trump in a difficult position - if he follows through with his threats, the situation will only escalate further, but if he backs down, he risks losing credibility. And so, the trade war rages on.
Unfortunately, this trade war is likely to continue for some time, and this has implications for countries like India. In the early 2000s, India experienced rapid growth largely due to an increase in global trade. However, when trade slowed down during the global financial crisis, India's growth also slowed. Today, with the current trade war between two of the largest economies in the world, the outlook for global trade is uncertain. For this reason, it is important for India to play a role in finding a resolution.
Thankfully, there is reason for optimism. Democracies, especially the United States, have a tendency to self-correct. This is because their legislators must face elections every few years, and if their policies are causing too much turmoil, they will feel the pressure from the public to make changes. And while there are exceptions to this rule, such as the US's prolonged involvement in wars like Vietnam and Iraq, there is hope that the pressure from the public will eventually force the current administration to rethink their trade policies.
In the end, we can only hope that this trade war will not continue on the same destructive path as past wars. While the stakes may not be as high as in a physical war, the consequences of a trade war can still be devastating for economies and the people who rely on them. Let us hope that leaders on both sides will have the wisdom to find a peaceful resolution before it's too late.
[This article has been trending online recently and has been generated with AI. Your feed is customized.]
[Generative AI is experimental.]
