July 9th 2024.
If you were planning on soaking up the sun and taking a dip at the beaches in the UK, you might want to reconsider. The summer season has not been living up to expectations so far. Despite a few warm and sunny days last month, where temperatures reached as high as 31°C and a heatwave was announced, the weather has taken a turn for the worse. Instead of clear skies and sunshine, we have been graced with rain and clouds. To add insult to injury, the Met Office has issued weather warnings for rain and thunderstorms in recent days.
Even the prestigious Wimbledon tournament has not been spared from the gloomy weather. Lower attendance figures have been recorded as fans waiting in queues and those sitting in Centre Court have had to endure the rain. As the school summer holidays approach, it's no surprise that we are all wondering when the weather will finally improve. But what is causing this disappointing weather in the first place?
The answer lies with the jet stream. This stream of air high up in the atmosphere has either been flowing over the UK or further south, allowing areas of low pressure to move in and bring along winds and rain. This has resulted in cooler and more unpredictable weather conditions in the UK and north west Europe, while southern Europe has been experiencing heatwaves and even wildfires on some of their islands.
According to Met Office Deputy Chief Meteorologist David Hayter, the jet stream plays a crucial role in determining the weather we experience. Even small shifts in its position can have a significant impact on the ground. In recent weeks, the jet stream has been directing cooler air towards the UK, with occasional bursts of strong winds and rain. For warm weather to reach the UK in summer, the jet stream would need to shift further north, allowing warmer air to travel up from the south. Unfortunately, this has not been the case for most of the summer so far.
But there is some good news on the horizon. A ridge of high pressure is expected to sweep across the UK starting from Thursday, bringing some relief from the dull and grey weather. This will lead to a slight increase in temperatures, although they will only reach the average for July. However, this burst of heat won't last for long as unsettled weather is predicted to return towards the end of the weekend and beginning of next week.
As for the burning question - is a heatwave on its way? It's hard to say for sure, as predicting the weather more than a couple of weeks in advance is a challenging task. However, there are some encouraging signs that the weather will start to improve in the second half of July. David explains that there are subtle indications of a more settled spell developing, at least for a while. It's too early to give any specific details, so it's best to keep an eye on the latest forecast. Of course, there is still a possibility of unsettled weather, and much will depend on the daily conditions as the forecast unfolds.
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