The Twelve Day War wherein Israel attacked Iran without warning — followed by a similar attack by the United States — as it stood on the edge of developing a nuclear weapon was a very expensive learning exercise.
Here are some learnings:
1. We learned that the Mossad is a very tricky and sly bunch of professionals who set up shop inside Iran and let loose a terrific drone attack on Iranian infrastructure, air defenses, military leadership, and nuclear scientists.
Reports are that Mossad and other Israeli commandos not only infiltrated Iran, but assembled their drones while inside Iran. In effect, Israel set up a factory, produced drones, and launched these drones against Iran from inside Iran.
Now that’s some bloody assymetrical warfare, eh?
Indications are these drones annhilated Iranian anti-air capabilities just before Israel’s air force launched an air attack.
2. We learned that the technical challenge of launching planes from Israel, refueling on the way in, bombing, refueling on the way out, and returning to base for another trip was well within the capabilities of the Israeli Air Force. For many years, it was suggested they did no have that capability. Clearly, they do.
3. We learned that the Russian anti-aircraft gear was not that good as it relates to survival on the battlefield and operations during combat. This was a pleasant surprise for everybody except the Russians and Iran.
This was the Orcs’ top line gear and the Israelis and Americans disappeared it. American stealth capabilities were almost perfect.
4. We learned that when President Donald Trump publishes a deadline — like the 60-day deadline for Iran and the US to negotiate an agreement to prevent Iran from developing a nuclear weapon — he means it.
This is refreshing. When President Trump said Iran would not have nukes, he meant it and it was actionable.
5. We learned that when President Donald Trump says he’s going to consider “some action within the next two weeks” he actually means he’s going to act tomorrow.
6. We learned the US militiary, in particular the US Air Force, can get anywhere on the globe without detection and drop awesome munitions from 50,000′, in the dark, flying more than 500 knots, and hit a bloody target the size of a manhole cover. Hit the same manhole cover twice. Boom!
American B2s flew undetected and dropped GBU 57 A/B MOP bombs — penetrators — that hit the same manhole cover in the Iranian night. Again, Boom!
The Americans launched from the United States, flew to Iran, entered/bombed/exited undetected, and hit their targets. Simultaneously, the US Navy fired cruise missiles with similar accuracy.
As I said earlier, wars are expensive AF. Here’s the tab.
IRAN
Iran suffered 610 civilian deaths (no world on wounded, but there could easily be a 10:1 ratio), massive property damage, and lost half their MRBM, LRBM (medium and long range ballistic missiles) stockpile and half their launchers. The illusion of air defense was shattered and the Israelis achieved air supremacy.
The Iranian military leadership was decapitated and its nuclear scientist community was culled hard.
ISRAEL
Israel suffered 27 civilians and 1 military death, 3000 civilians and 7 soldiers wounded, substantial property damage, 9,000 civilians displaced due to residential damage, a crisis in tech sector employment as many workers were in the reserves and called to active duty, and approximately $20B in warfighting costs.
Israel’s air defense denied entry to Iranian ballistic missiles and drones at the 80-90% level which is not as good as the Israelis expected their systems to perform. The Iranians targeted residential neighborhoods within Israel.
Israel’s GDP is about $540B, so this was a 3-4% of GDP cost.
UNITED STATES
The US lost no persons KIA or WIA and invested more than $5B in direct military costs.
Here are some related issues that surfaced.
1. The Iranians have supplied Russia with a substantial number of Shahed drones, with sources suggesting it is in the 8-10,000 unit range. Russia uses these drones against Ukraine.
The Russians and Iranians are supposedly building a joint manufacturing plant for drones inside Russia.
2. Marine navigation is likely sorted out a bit more with the obvious willingness of the United States to rain down death on anybody who interferes with it. The Straits of Hormuz, the Red Sea, the Suez Canal, and surrounding waters are likely more safe today.
3. Marine shipping and insurance rates skyrocketed during the hot phase of the Twelve Day War and are coming down slowly.
4. China’s supply of Iranian oil is probably safe though Iranian production is about half what it was pre-war.
5. The Iranian support of Hamas, Hezbollah, and the Houthis is likely receding. Israel, meanwhile, is making war on Hamas and the whole Gaza issue is about to return to center stage.
6. The Iranians — who are telling their population they kicked the snot out of the Little and Big Satan — are now willing to come back to the negotiation table with the Americans, but as Donald Trump said, “What is there to negotiate, we destroyed their stuff?”
The Iranians desperately want the American sanctions to be removed. That is their most important consideration as they are otherwise headed fro bankruptcy.
It is worth noting that Iran has been under some form of sanctions since 2006 from the US, the European Union, the United Nations, and individual western countries. Its two strongest allies are Russia with whom it just signed a 20-year alliance with no mutual defense arrangement and China to whom it sells more than half its oil.
7. The Iranians made the most feeble retalitory strike in the history of warfare when they called the Americans and told them they were attacking a US airbase in Qatar with 6 ballistic missiles. The US/Qatar shot them all down.
OK, dear reader, the Israelis and the United States were sincere when they said they would not allow the Iranians to have a nuclear weapon. As much as we all criticized Russia for its brutal attack against Ukraine for specious reasons, this was more of the same type of violence. Very disconcerting in the greater scheme of things.
The yardstick held up to this was the Iranian efforts to enrich uranium to weapons grade — approximately 90% enrichment. Some of the Iranian stockpile was at 83.7%. That’s on you, Ayatollah.
The uranium was always an easy mark to follow, but the Iranians had to also “miniaturize” whatever explosive device they developed in order to send it via ballistic missile against the Little and Big Satans. They also had to develop the right ballistic missile to carry that load.
Not much is said about these two milestones — miniaturization and the ballistic missile — so I doubt Iran was really that close to developing a useful nuke, but there was no reason to chance it.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
