Suppose you are an ambitious Republican seeking the nomination of your party through its established primary process to contest the 2024 election against the presumptive, ancient candidate of the Democrats, President Joe Biden, you have a formidable challenge ahead of you: you have to take out Donald J Trump to get the nomination.
The “experts” believed the Republican primary contest was going to be a very tight knot of folks vying against Trump, but it has turned out to be a circus.
I like a circus. Please pass the buttered popcorn.
Here is the crowd emerging from the clown car:
Ron DeSantis — highest polling candidate at 25% against Trump at 56% and current Governor of Florida, the establishment’s “Never Trump” favorite candidate, winner of a substantial margin victory in 2022, 44 years old, Yale/Harvard guy
Nikki Haley — former South Carolina Governor and Trump’s Ambassador to the United Nations polling at 3%, formidable woman of substance
Chris Christie — former New Jersey Governor of Bridgegate fame whose substantial girth is tipping the polling scales at 1% and who fancies himself the hard knuckled heavy to knock out Trump. Bit over impressed with himself.
Tim Scott — current South Carolina Senator whose life is the American Dream currently polling at less than 1%. Great launch.
Glenn Youngkin — recently elected Virginia Governor, former CEO of Carlyle Group and giant killer in defeating Dem Terry McAuliffe, will one day be POTUS, very establishment. Keep your eye on this guy. Currently unannounced.
Chris Sununu — current New Hampshire Governor, not registering, but a man with a storied last name in Republican establishment circles, space holder going nowhere.
Vivek Ramaswamy — a successful tech business/entrepreneur guy who is running on an anti-woke platform and polling at 4%. On substance, I like this guy.
Doug Burgum — North Dakota Governor with a solid conservative records and wealthy from selling a tech company to Microsoft. Very long shot, but ideologically very attractive to conservatives. Announces on 7 June next week.
Mike Pence — former Trump Vice President polling in the 3% range, total paint drying dud.
Asa Hutchison — former Congressman and Arkansas Governor who positions himself as the “non-MAGA” candidate while mirroring almost every MAGA policy, polling at less than 1%
Larry Elder — former failed Republican California Governor candidate, right-wing/conservative commentator, barely moving the polling scale
An advisor to Ron DeSantis, a savvy guy who has studied the numbers for his candidate, puts the numbers today like this:
Only Trump — 35%
Never Trump — 20%
Open for engagement — 45%
Others critiquing this handicapping make two pointed comments:
Substantially underestimating level of Trump support as evidenced by recent post-DeSantis announcement polls from reputable sources putting the Trump v DeSantis matchup at 56% Trump v 25% DeSantis.
The recognition that Trump’s supporters are zealots and will show up to vote.
The problem with all primary courtships is that only about 10% of a party’s registered voters actually vote. Zealots vote.
The BIG FIELD favors Trump as he is able to let the numbers divide and conquer his main and most viable opponent, Ron DeSantis.
Another way to look at this is: Trump v Not Trump. This means that every vote against Trump comes from either the Never Trump crowd or the “open for engagement” crowd.
If Trump is anywhere near 56%, then he is getting about half of the “open for engagement” votes which doesn’t leave many votes for anybody else.
This is why the big field favors Trump — each candidate getting 1-5% dilutes the amount of votes available for DeSantis, Trump’s only viable opponent right now. Do the math.
Then, you have the zealot thing.
DeSantis, locked in a cage match with Mickey Mouse and Disney, did not do himself a favor with the failed announcement on Twitter — what a cock up. Looked amateurish and rigged together with baling wire and duct tape.
DeSantis has supposedly canned his volunteer Super Pac head who had run Ted Cruz’s unsuccessful campaign in 2016, DeSantis’ Super PAC, and who ran the launch.
Rick Wilson, an alleged Republican consultant, Never Trumper since before 2016, opines — “The only way Trump does not get the nomination is if he is dead or in jail.”
The Dems will try to deliver on the “jail” idea. They will indict Trump for everything and it will sound ominous, but the 35% Only Trumpers will not waiver and that will win the nomination for Trump.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
