May 15th 2024.
The Southwest Monsoon is expected to make its grand entrance over Kerala on May 31, marking the beginning of the four-month long monsoon season. This season is of utmost importance for India's agriculture-based economy. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) made the announcement on Wednesday, stating that there could be a margin of error of four days for the predicted date.
IMD Director General Mrutyunjay Mohapatra clarified that this is not an early onset as the normal date for monsoon over Kerala is June 1. Last month, the IMD had forecasted above-average rainfall during the Southwest Monsoon season, which lasts from June to September. The months of June and July hold immense significance for agriculture as majority of the Kharif crop is sown during this time.
There are two key factors that contribute to a bountiful monsoon season. The first is a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to a cooler eastern Indian Ocean compared to the western part. This phenomenon aids in bringing rain to several states in southern India. Currently, the IOD is in a neutral state but is expected to turn positive by August.
The second factor is the below-average snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia. According to historical data, there is an inverse relationship between the snow levels and monsoon. This means that lower snow cover can lead to a better monsoon season. Mohapatra had mentioned this in last month's forecast.
In conclusion, the IMD's prediction of a timely Southwest Monsoon along with the favorable conditions of a positive IOD and low snow cover has raised hopes for a successful monsoon season. This is crucial for India's economy and the agricultural sector in particular. Let us keep our fingers crossed and hope for a fruitful monsoon season ahead.
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