I've been dipping around the edges of this story with recent blog posts, but Seth Weintraub takes it a step further in this post in Fortune. Next year is likely to be the year that smartphones emerge as the default mobile device platform around the world and probably the default internet access device in terms of numbers of users and devices.
Here are some quotes from Seth's post which you should go read:
In 2011, we might see half a billion smartphones sold worldwide. Smartphones will likely blow by traditional computers next year as the way most of the world gains access to the Internet.
Cheaper hardware will eliminate the need for subsidies and therefore will improve competition between carriers, and spur them to improve their networks.
next year, Broadcom says it will release a follow-up chip that will allow WVGA displays and as much power as today's high-end Smartphones at the same $75-$100 prices. That Nexus S that costs $530 now off contract will cost just a fraction of that in just one year.
To be clear, that sub $100 price is not the cost of materials, it is the suggested retail price after the manufacturers (and carriers) have taken their profits.
if you thought Android going from 30,000 activations a day to 300,000 activations/day was impressive, 2011 might be an even bigger growth year for Android.
If you haven't put all the pieces of the story together, let me do it for you. Smartphones prices are about to plunge and the result will be hundreds of millions of people all over the world starting to use them. And many of these devices will be running Android, not iOS. And wireless data prices will likely come down too.
That's a big macro theme that entrepreneurs and VCs need to get in front of. We are working on it and you should be too.
