September 14th 2024.
Bud Black, the unflinchingly positive manager of the Colorado Rockies, may be a realist at heart, but he also has a keen understanding of his team's strengths and weaknesses. As the season began, he knew that the bullpen would be the Rockies' Achilles' heel. And unfortunately, his prediction turned out to be true.
Heading into the final stretch of the season, the Rockies' bullpen had the worst ERA, WHIP, and batting average against in all of Major League Baseball. Their 459 strikeouts were the fewest in the National League and third-fewest in the entire league. It was a devastating blow to a team that had high hopes for the season.
But, as Black often says, things can change in an instant. And that's exactly what happened. Thanks to a group of young, hard-throwing pitchers and the resurgence of veteran Tyler Kinley, the Rockies' bullpen has turned things around in the final month of the season. What was once historically terrible has now become a source of hope for the future.
In their last 12 games, Rockies relievers have posted a remarkable 2.16 ERA and have not allowed a single home run. The late-inning collapses that plagued the team earlier in the season have disappeared. It's a promising sign for the team's future, as Black noted during their recent road trip.
But in order to understand where the Rockies are headed, it's important to remember where they've been. Earlier in the season, the bullpen was so bad that it could have qualified for federal disaster relief. One particularly painful loss to the Dodgers on June 18th at Coors Field stands out. The Rockies had a comfortable 9-4 lead going into the ninth inning, but ended up giving up seven runs and losing the game. It was the sixth time that season that they had entered the ninth inning with a lead and ended up losing after giving up five or more runs. This set a new record for the most blown leads of this kind in a single season in modern baseball history.
Just when it seemed like things couldn't get any worse, they did. On August 27th, the lowly Marlins stunned the Rockies by scoring five runs in the ninth inning to win 9-8. At that point, the Rockies' ninth-inning ERA was a staggering 7.44, the highest of any National League team in any inning in the last 50 years. The previous record holder? The 2023 Rockies, who had a 7.17 ERA in the ninth inning.
But now, let's turn back to Black's optimistic vision for the future. His hope is fueled by the emergence of a group of talented young pitchers at Coors Field. Right-handers Angel Chivilli, Seth Halvorsen, Victor Vodnik, Jeff Criswell, and Jaden Hill, along with lefty Luis Peralta, have all made a big impact on the team. And let's not forget about the 33-year-old Kinley, who has taken over the closer role with his devastating vertical slider.
These young pitchers bring a lot to the table. They all have the ability to hit 95 mph or higher with their fastballs, and some have even reached 100 mph. But it's not just their velocity that makes Black excited. He also appreciates their fearlessness, aggressiveness, and ability to limit walks.
Of course, the big question is whether these young pitchers can maintain their success and attitude in the long run. Relievers are known for being inconsistent and unpredictable. But for now, here's what they've been able to accomplish:
- Kinley, who struggled with commanding his fastball and slider earlier in the season, has turned things around and now has a career-high 12 saves in 13 chances. He has held opponents scoreless in 22 of his last 25 games, posting an impressive 2.45 ERA. He may even be a contender for the closer role next season, though he will have competition.
- Vodnik has pitched an impressive 66 2/3 innings in relief, the sixth-most in the National League and tied for the most among rookie pitchers. Despite a stint on the injured list, he has thrown the most innings by a Rockies rookie reliever since Tommy Kahnle in 2014. He has given up only five home runs compared to Kinley's 11.
- The Rockies have high hopes for Vodnik, who has shown an ability to bounce back from adversity. He has nine saves and only three blown saves, though his strikeout rate is not as dynamic as Kinley's.
- Halvorsen, at 24 years old, brings a triple-digit fastball and a confounding changeup to the mound. In his major league debut, he threw just one pitch, but in his next outing, he dominated the Orioles. Against Jackson Holliday, he threw a 100-mph fastball followed by three consecutive changeups for his first major league strikeout. He then used three more changeups to force a groundout against Gunnar Henderson before overpowering All-Star catcher Adley Rutschman with four 100-plus fastballs and getting him to pop out on a changeup. In his six appearances, he has struck out five of the 19 batters he's faced. The Rockies are excited about his potential as a late-game reliever.
- Chivilli, at 22 years old, has had a few rough outings, but has been unscored upon in 13 of his last 17 appearances since being called up from Triple-A on July 30th. During that time, he has a 2.41 ERA with 16 strikeouts and only four walks. While he doesn't have the same strikeout power as some of the other young relievers, his sinker/changeup combination has been effective at producing weak contact.
- Criswell, 25, brings a fastball that averages 95.7 mph to the table, but he needs to work on keeping the ball down. He struggled against the Yankees, giving up home runs to three consecutive batters, but he has also shown flashes of brilliance, striking out five of the six batters he faced against the Marlins. His 3.60 ERA and 11 strikeouts vs. four walks are impressive, but it's still a small sample size.
- The Rockies have been in desperate need of a quality lefty in the bullpen, especially with Lucas Gilbreath injured. They are hoping that Peralta can fill that role. He has risen through the ranks quickly this season, starting in Single-A with the Pirates and ending up with the Rockies after a trade for veteran lefty Jalen Beeks. In his eight games with the Rockies, he has yet to give up a run, allowing just three hits and three walks while striking out nine. It's an impressive start to his major league career.
And finally, there's Hill. The second-round pick out of LSU in 2021 has only pitched in a few games at the big-league level, but his fastball/slider/changeup combination has caught Black's attention. As he often warns, there may be some walks in his future, but if he can improve his command, he could become a valuable back-end reliever.
As with any Rockies relievers, there are still many questions surrounding this group. How will other teams adjust to their pitching style? Will they be able to stay healthy and perform at Coors Field? But for now, the bullpen has shown that they may be part of the solution for the Rockies, not just their biggest problem. And for more Rockies news and analysis, be sure to sign up for the Rockies Insider newsletter.
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