May 5th 2024.
Sir Keir Starmer had a fantastic Saturday yesterday, as he spent the day meeting with successful Labour candidates in various parts of the country. One of the highlights of his day was meeting with Claire Ward, the newly elected mayor of the East Midlands. It's safe to say that this was one of the best Saturdays of Sir Keir's life.
Amidst all the meetings and celebrations, Sir Keir also managed to catch a glimpse of his favorite football team, Arsenal, as they beat Bournemouth 3-0 in the Premiere League. This victory kept their title hopes alive and added to the overall excitement of the day.
But the real icing on the cake came a little later when it was announced that Sadiq Khan had won a third term as the Mayor of London, becoming the first person to do so. And to top it all off, there was another unexpected win for Labour as Richard Parker narrowly beat out the Conservative incumbent to become the Mayor of the West Midlands.
However, things hadn't looked so promising the day before. Labour had lost in Birmingham due to a pro-Gaza independent candidate, and there were rumors that London was going to be a closer race than expected. But as it turned out, these were just mistaken forecasts and the Conservatives ended up losing 474 councillors in total, with the Lib Dems taking over in terms of total seats won.
Despite the success of the local elections, arguably the best news for Labour this weekend had nothing to do with them. But since this is an article about the elections, we'll save that for later. In the meantime, readers can sign up for Metro's politics newsletter, Alright, Gov?, to stay updated on all the latest news from Westminster and beyond.
So, what are the main takeaways from the local election results? Well, the most obvious one is that Labour did extremely well. Some may argue that they could have done even better and point to the loss of left-wing votes to parties like the Greens. But the fact remains that Labour won 10 out of 11 mayoral races and gained 186 more councillors, which is a significant achievement.
Of course, there are always lessons to be learned and criticisms to be addressed. One such criticism is that Labour's stance on the war in Gaza may have cost them votes, especially in areas with a large Muslim population. This was evident in the West Midlands, where independent candidate Akhmed Yakoob gained a significant number of votes by focusing on the issue of Gaza.
Looking ahead to the general election, it seems that Reform UK could pose a threat to the Conservatives. Although they only won two councillors, their candidate came very close to beating the Tories into third place in a by-election in Blackpool South. Leader Richard Tice believes that his party is becoming the real opposition to Labour in the North, Midlands, and Wales.
Speaking of the general election, what do these local election results mean for it? While some have speculated that it could happen as early as June or July, it still seems most likely that it will take place in the autumn. Some Tories may want to call it earlier to try and minimize their losses, but many believe it would be best to wait until their tax cuts have taken effect and the issue of asylum seekers has been dealt with.
As for the leadership of the Conservative party, it's likely that Rishi Sunak will still be in charge for the general election. Despite the dire results of the local elections, Conservative MPs are wary of causing more leadership drama, which has been a major factor in turning off voters in recent years.
So, what do both the Conservatives and Labour need to do between now and the general election? According to ex-home secretary Suella Braverman, the Tories need to make some urgent changes to avoid being completely wiped out in the next election. She believes that Rishi Sunak needs to own up to the poor results and steer the party further to the right in order to win back voters who have turned to Reform UK.
Meanwhile, Labour needs to address the issue of trust in Muslim communities, according to deputy campaign coordinator Ellie Reeves. She believes that they need to do a lot of listening and make sure that people understand their position in order to regain the trust of Muslim voters.
And finally, the best news for Labour this weekend came from a place where no elections took place at all: Scotland. It has long been said that the key to Downing Street for Labour goes through Scotland, and recent polls have shown a significant rise in support for the party in the country. If this trend continues, it could make Labour's path to power much smoother.
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