December 8th 2024.
The College Football Playoff selection process caused quite a stir among the SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Mountain West conferences, leaving the Big Ten as the only one unscathed. As the inaugural 12-team event approached, there were debates and controversies surrounding the selection of teams. Ultimately, it was Oregon, the undefeated conference champion, who landed the top seed. Right behind them was Penn State, the runner-up, followed by Ohio State and Indiana at numbers 8 and 10 respectively.
There was some speculation that Indiana may lose their spot after Clemson won the ACC championship and secured a bid. However, they managed to hold onto their spot, and it was a battle between Alabama and SMU for the final at-large berth. But what about the Big Ten teams? How did they manage to stay above the fray?
Penn State, despite having only one victory over a ranked team, received the number 6 seed. On the other hand, Ohio State was seeded at number 8, giving them a home-field advantage in their game against Tennessee. Warde Manuel, the committee chair and Michigan's athletic director, explained that the committee voted Ohio State one spot ahead of Tennessee, but they did not consider the potential impact on the hosting of the games.
In each case, there were valid arguments for the placement of the Big Ten teams. What surprised many was that despite underlying data reflecting weakness, the conference seemed to get the benefit of the doubt in every case. For instance, the Big Ten was ranked third in the Sagarin computer ratings, far behind the SEC and even behind the Big 12. Additionally, they had a 1-3 head-to-head record against the SEC and a forgettable non-conference performance.
Even though there was a lot of attention on the final at-large berth between Alabama and SMU, it was argued that Alabama had a stronger resume than Indiana, except for the number of losses. This factor seemed to matter dearly to the committee. It is unclear why the Big Ten received the benefit of the doubt repeatedly, but it was undoubtedly one of the biggest winners on selection day.
There were some clear winners and losers on this decisive day for college football. One of the winners was Texas, who received the number 5 seed despite losing the SEC title game. They would open at home against Clemson and then advance to Atlanta to face Arizona State. On the other hand, Notre Dame was considered a loser as they were seeded at number 7 and bracketed with Georgia in the quarterfinals. This decision was likely due to the committee's reluctance to drop conference title game losers below a team that does not have a conference.
Boise State was also a winner, with their one loss to Oregon in Week 2 being the driving force behind their number 3 seed and a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. This was a big victory for the Group of Five, the Mountain West, and the Pac-12, which will be Boise State's new conference in 2026. Unfortunately, the SEC was considered a loser as Alabama lost the resume showdown with SMU for the final at-large berth, and South Carolina saw the team they defeated, Clemson, roll into the playoffs.
Another winner was SMU, who joined the ACC without any media revenue distributions and managed to reach the CFP in their first season in a power conference. However, the Big 12 was not as lucky, with poor rankings and no chance of receiving an at-large berth. Their champion, Arizona State, was even seeded behind Boise State, showing little respect from the committee. This is an issue that the conference must address moving forward.
The College Football Playoff selection process caused quite a stir among several conferences, including the SEC, Big 12, ACC, and Mountain West. Interestingly, the only conference that seemed to have escaped unscathed was the Big Ten. In fact, the Big Ten had a stellar performance during the inaugural 12-team event, with Oregon, the undefeated conference champion, snagging the top overall seed. Following closely behind were Penn State, Ohio State, and Indiana, who landed the No. 6, 8, and 10 seeds, respectively. While Indiana may have been the closest to facing any potential controversy, they never appeared to be in danger of losing their spot, even after Clemson's win in the ACC championship game threatened to steal a spot in the playoff.
But why did the Big Ten teams fare so well in the selection process? What set them apart from the other conferences? These questions have raised some eyebrows and sparked some debate. For instance, how did a team like Penn State, who only had one victory over a ranked opponent, manage to secure the No. 6 seed? And why did Ohio State, who had a less impressive record than Tennessee, get the No. 8 spot and home-field advantage in their first-round game against the Volunteers?
Warde Manuel, the committee chair and Michigan's athletic director, shed some light on these decisions, stating that ultimately, Ohio State was ranked one spot above Tennessee. However, he also emphasized that the committee never even discussed the potential of one team hosting over the other until after the Top 25 rankings were finalized.
In each case, there are valid arguments for why the Big Ten teams were placed where they were. However, what stands out is that the conference seemed to have received the benefit of the doubt in every instance, despite underlying data that may suggest otherwise. For example, the Big Ten was ranked third in the Sagarin computer ratings, behind not only the SEC but also the Big 12. Additionally, the conference had a 1-3 record against the SEC and a 1-5 record against other top-ranked teams in their peer group. Furthermore, their overall non-conference performance was not particularly impressive, with only two wins over teams that ended up in the CFP rankings. In comparison, two SEC teams, Alabama and South Carolina, who were left out of the playoff, had stronger schedules according to the Sagarin ratings.
While there was much focus on the battle between Alabama and SMU for the final at-large berth, it could be argued that Alabama had a stronger resume than Indiana, except for their number of losses, which ultimately mattered to the committee. But why did the Big Ten consistently receive the benefit of the doubt? We may never know for sure, but one thing is certain: the conference was undeniably one of the biggest winners on Selection Sunday.
Now, let's take a closer look at the winners and losers of this decisive day in college football.
One of the biggest winners was Texas, who, as a reward for their loss in the SEC title game, secured the coveted No. 5 seed. They will have the opportunity to open the playoff at home against Clemson, then move on to face Arizona State in Atlanta. In contrast, top-seeded Oregon won't have the luxury of playing a home game and will face the winner of the Ohio State-Tennessee matchup. This format highlights the need for changes to provide greater rewards for conference champions.
Unfortunately, one of the losers on Selection Sunday was Notre Dame. Despite a strong performance, they were seeded at No. 7 and will face off against No. 2 Georgia in the quarterfinals. It seems as though the committee was hesitant to drop teams that had lost in their respective conference title games below a team like Notre Dame, who isn't affiliated with a conference.
Another big winner was Boise State, who had an impressive run through their schedule after a close loss to Oregon in Week 2. This performance, along with the strength of their conference, landed them the No. 3 seed and a spot in the Fiesta Bowl. This is a significant victory for the Group of Five, the Mountain West, and the Pac-12, who will welcome Boise State to their conference in 2026.
On the other hand, the SEC was not so fortunate on Selection Sunday. Not only did Alabama lose the battle for the final at-large berth to SMU, but South Carolina also had to watch as the team they defeated last week, Clemson, secured a spot in the playoff thanks to the ACC's automatic bid. It was a rough day for the kingpin of college football, which could spell trouble for other conferences.
Lastly, we cannot forget to mention the winners and losers within the Big 12. The conference had a poor ranking for five weeks and had zero chance of securing an at-large berth. On top of that, their conference champion, Arizona State, was seeded behind Boise State. This lack of respect from the committee is something that the Big 12 will have to address in the future.
Overall, Selection Sunday was full of surprises, with some teams coming out on top and others falling short. The decisions made by the committee may always remain a mystery, but one thing is for sure: the Big Ten was one of the biggest winners on this decisive day in college football.
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