September 10th 2023.
In any scenario presented in the MetricsMx survey, the victorious candidate in Morena's internal race, Claudia Sheinbaum, obtains at least double the electoral preferences than the candidate from the PRI, PAN, PRD alliance, Xóchitl Gálvez.
Without specifying the candidate from Movimiento Ciudadano, the results for the question of "who would you vote for to become the president of Mexico" - assuming the elections were held today - are as follows:
With 58.3% of the votes, Claudia Sheinbaum is the top choice.
With 22.3% of the votes, Xóchitl Gálvez is the second choice.
With 8.7% of the votes, any candidate from Movimiento Ciudadano is the third choice.
In this case, the advantage of the former Mexico City head of government over the PAN senator is 2.6 to 1 - equivalent to a 36-point difference.
MetricsMx Survey: What if Marcelo Ebrard were the candidate for Movimiento Ciudadano?
This lead remains virtually unchanged if the candidate for Movimiento Ciudadano is Marcelo Ebrard, who has repeatedly stated that he no longer has a place in Morena and will seek to be on the ballot for the 2024 elections representing a different political option. There are only vacancies in the party led by Dante Delgado.
Ebrard does not significantly increase the vote for Movimiento Ciudadano: it goes from 8.7% without identifying the candidate to 9.0% with him as the candidate.
MetricsMx Survey: What if Samuel García were the candidate for Movimiento Ciudadano?
Not even the governor of Nuevo León, Samuel García, can maintain the vote for Movimiento Ciudadano. With this politician as the candidate, Movimiento Ciudadano falls from 8.7% to 6.9%.
MetricsMx did not include the Movimiento Ciudadano member who, in previous surveys, increased the party's preferences - Luis Donaldo Colosio Riojas - as the mayor of Monterrey has clearly stated that he is not interested in participating in the presidential race.
MetricsMx Survey: What if Movimiento Ciudadano doesn't participate?
Furthermore, in the scenario where Movimiento Ciudadano does not participate in the 2024 elections, things do not improve for Xóchitl Gálvez.
The numbers are clear: Claudia Sheinbaum would continue to lead by 2.6 to 1, which in this scenario means a difference of almost 40 points in favor of the Morena candidate.
Since the transition from PRI to PAN in the 2000 presidential elections, it is not remembered that a candidate started with such wide advantages. In 2006, Andrés Manuel López Obrador, then candidate for the PRD, began his campaign with an average lead of 10 points over Felipe Calderón from the PAN. In 2012, even in the questionable GEA/ISA polls, Enrique Peña Nieto did not achieve a lead of more than 16 points - that election ended up being very close.
Nine months from the 2024 elections, it cannot be assured that the left-wing candidate will defeat the representative of the PRI, PAN, PRD alliance, but without a doubt, the lead with which Claudia Sheinbaum starts is enormous and rarely seen. Of course, in Morena, they would do well to remember that once the race begins, anything can happen. An example that there are no insurmountable leads can be found in what AMLO did in 2012: he practically tied with a Peña Nieto who had started very high.
For now, there are the numbers from the MetricsMx survey, whose polls have been accurate in state electoral processes held in the last two years. As in previous occasions, a telephone survey with a robot was conducted - on September 8th - with 1,200 cases. The estimates have a maximum error of +/- 2.83% with a confidence level of 95%.
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