October 25th 2023.
SDPnoticias has released the results of the surveys conducted by MetricsMX. This time, the focus is on the polls carried out on representative samples of the populations in Chiapas, Morelos, and Yucatán. With over seven months until the local elections take place in these states, there is still much to be decided.
One crucial aspect to consider is the determination of candidates based on gender parity in each of these regions and in the overall race. The MetricsMX survey for Chiapas reveals that if the elections were held today, Morena, PT, and PVEM would dominate. Morena currently holds a 45 percentage point lead over Movimiento Ciudadano and the Frente Amplio por México, who are tied for second place.
In the race for the candidacy in Chiapas, Eduardo Ramírez from Morena is leading with 26.1%. However, Sasil de León is not far behind with 19.6%. The internal competition among the Frente Amplio por México's candidates is unclear and divided. None of the politicians have reached even 15% support, with 58% of the respondents either undecided or choosing "other" when asked about their preferred candidate from this coalition. On the other hand, only one candidate has emerged for Movimiento Ciudadano - Noé Castañón. However, almost 55% of the respondents are unsure about who should be the candidate for this party.
Moving on to Morelos, the MetricsMX survey shows an overwhelming lead of over 45 percentage points for Morena and its allies. Interestingly, even without any defined candidates at the moment, Movimiento Ciudadano is competing with the Frente Amplio por México for the second position in Morelos. The internal races in Morelos are tight within both Morena and the Frente Amplio por México, with no clear candidate emerging from either party.
In Morena, Margarita González and Rabindranath Salazar stand out, while for the PAN-PRI-PRD alliance, Ángel García, José Luis Urióstegui, and Jonathan Márquez have similar levels of support. Lastly, in Yucatán, if the elections were held today, Morena would surpass PAN and its allies by over 20 percentage points. As for the support for the Frente Amplio por México's candidates, Renán Barrera Concha currently has the most support, with a 12-point lead over Cecilia Patrón Laviada. However, 47% of the population is still undecided about their preferred candidate from this coalition.
In Morena, there is one clear front-runner for the candidacy - Huacho Díaz, who is 21 points ahead of Alpha Tavera. 31% of the respondents are undecided about their preferred candidate from this coalition. Despite the uncertainty in these races, one thing is clear - the upcoming elections in Chiapas, Morelos, and Yucatán will be highly competitive and will have a significant impact on the political landscape of Mexico.
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