January 15th 2025.
The recent incidents of parcels exploding on cargo planes have caused quite a stir, with many blaming Russia for these dangerous attacks. According to a leading expert, this could just be the beginning, and innocent civilians could become casualties in what he describes as Russia's "hidden war" against Europe. Keir Giles, a Russia expert from Chatham House, believes that this is a retaliatory move by Russia after European countries showed support for Ukraine during Russia's invasion in 2022.
Just six months after a parcel caught fire at a warehouse in Birmingham, the Polish Prime Minister, Donald Tusk, accused Russia of planning "acts of terrorism" in the air against Poland and other countries. Similar suspicious packages were also found on cargo planes in Germany and Poland. Both British intelligence services and the CIA have confirmed that these were "field tests" facilitated by Russian services, although Moscow has denied any involvement.
Mr. Giles expressed his concerns, stating that Russia has a history of sponsoring terrorist movements to carry out attacks against European countries, especially during the Cold War. He believes that with these recent parcel plots, Russia has once again shown its willingness to cause mass casualties. In his words, "Europe is bearing the brunt of these attacks, and we should be prepared for a surge in Russian state terrorist attacks across the continent."
According to Mr. Giles, Russian President Vladimir Putin has been orchestrating sabotage attacks against Europe for years. He explained that these attacks usually occur when Russia is not content with the way the war is going, and they often pick up after a triggering event. While Nordic and Baltic countries have been raising alarms about Russian sabotage for years, no significant action has been taken so far. Mr. Giles believes that it will take a substantial disaster before the issue is addressed appropriately in countries west of Warsaw.
In recent years, there have been other attacks on Western countries, including GPS interference and cutting undersea communication cables, which have been attributed to Russia. However, Russian authorities have consistently denied any involvement or refused to comment on these incidents. Last November, after a fatal plane crash in Lithuania, which was believed to be caused by an exploding Russian parcel, the Head of the State Security Department in Lithuania, Darius Jauniškis, issued a warning, stating that such incidents could happen again in the future. He also mentioned that Russia's aggression has been increasing, and it's a cause for concern.
Mr. Giles believes that Russia is trying out different methods to harm the West, not just through state terrorism, but also through information warfare. This issue was raised during a bilateral meeting between Norwegian and Russian officials in 2019. Mr. Giles has previously stated that these acts of sabotage can also be seen as acts of war, not just a "hidden war" as many would like to believe. He believes that using words like "hybrid" or "subthreshold" to describe this war is just a way for government authorities to maintain the idea that Russia is not at war with the West. However, he believes that it's time to acknowledge the reality and take appropriate action.
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