October 9th 2024.
It was a tense day at the Summit of the Commonwealth of Independent States in Moscow, as Russian President Vladimir Putin addressed the gathered leaders on October 8, 2024. His speech was met with both admiration and concern, as the world watched and listened to his every word. But little did they know, behind the scenes, Putin's henchmen were already planning their next move.
In a rare and candid speech, Ken McCallum, the director general of MI5, warned of the impending danger that Russia posed to Britain and the rest of Europe. He spoke of the nation's ‘staggering rise’ in attempts at assassination, sabotage, and other crimes, all orchestrated by the Russian regime. McCallum also pointed the finger at Iran, accusing them of being behind ‘plot after plot’ on British soil since the tragic killing of Mahsa Amini in 2022.
The threat level was at an all-time high, with a 48% increase in inquiries into plots by hostile states in the last year alone. McCallum revealed that both Russia and Iran were recruiting criminals to carry out their dirty work, causing a risk of state aggression in the UK. But it was the terrorist trend that concerned MI5 the most, particularly the worsening threat from Al-Qaeda and Islamic State.
According to McCallum, the number of state threat investigations had surged by 48% in the last year, with agents from Russia's main intelligence agency responsible for ‘arson, sabotage, and more dangerous actions’ in Britain. This was in response to the UK's support for Ukraine in their ongoing war with Russia, including the supply of weapons. McCallum spoke of the ‘fevered imagination’ of Putin's regime and warned that the UK should expect to see continued acts of aggression from Russia.
But it wasn't just Russia that posed a threat. Iran had also been behind 20 ‘potentially lethal’ plots since 2022, targeting Iranians abroad who opposed the country's authorities. With this knowledge, the threat level in the UK had been classified as ‘substantial’ by MI5, meaning an attack was ‘likely’ and the public should remain vigilant and report any concerns to the police.
McCallum explained that threat levels were designed to give an indication of the likelihood of a terrorist attack, with five rankings ranging from low to critical. He warned that if the Middle East crisis escalated, with Israel launching a major attack in response to Iran's recent missile barrage, there was a risk of such threats broadening. He also highlighted the fact that both Russia and Iran made use of criminals as proxies, from drug traffickers to low-level crooks.
The threat from Al-Qaeda and Islamic State was also a cause for concern, with McCallum stating that they had ‘resumed efforts to export terrorism’. He warned that while Islamic State was not as powerful as it was a decade ago, they had recently demonstrated their capabilities with an attack in Moscow. MI5, along with European partners, were working tirelessly to disrupt any IS-connected activities in their homelands.
The director general also spoke of Al-Qaeda's efforts to capitalize on conflict in the Middle East, calling for violent action. He revealed that over the last month, more than a third of MI5's top priority investigations had some connection to organized overseas terrorist groups. McCallum ended his speech by warning that more terror cases would be coming through the courts, as organized groups had the numbers and the know-how to carry out mass casualty attacks. The threat was real, and everyone must remain vigilant to ensure the safety and security of the nation.
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