February 23rd 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin was recently seen studying a map of the southern part of Russia, the Black Sea, and the eastern part of Ukraine. This has caused concerns that he may be planning another invasion in Europe, similar to his actions two years ago when he invaded Ukraine. There is speculation that the pro-Russian separatist region of Transnistria in eastern Moldova may be seeking annexation to Russia.
It is believed that Putin may address this issue during his upcoming speech to the Russian Federal Assembly on February 29. There are fears that he may use this opportunity to approve the annexation of Transnistria, which could have serious consequences for Moldova and Ukraine. Gennady Chorba, an oppositionist in Moldova, stated that there are plans for MPs to gather in Tiraspol, the capital of Transnistria, to appeal to Russia and potentially join the Russian Federation. This would give Putin a strategic advantage in attacking Moldova and also provide access to the Ukrainian port of Odesa, which is seen as a valuable prize.
However, Moldovan officials have dismissed these claims, stating that it is part of Russia's ongoing hybrid war in the region. The Institute for the Study of War has also warned that any attempt by Transnistria to join Russia would only support Russia's agenda in the region. They also mentioned the possibility of a referendum being held on annexation during the Transnistrian Congress of Deputies on February 28, which could be used as a pretext to protect Russian citizens and "compatriots" in the region.
It is unlikely that Putin will declare the annexation of Transnistria during his address to the Russian Federal Assembly, but he may offer his observations on the situation. Transnistria has been economically, politically, and militarily supported by Russia since its declaration of independence in 1990. Although a referendum on independence in 2006 was not recognized by Moldova or the international community, it showed the region's continuous support for Russia. Additionally, there are already up to 2,000 Russian soldiers in Transnistria under the guise of "peacekeeping."
Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has stated that Russia will not abandon its citizens in Transnistria, further adding to the concerns of a potential annexation. Moldovan President Maia Sandu has also accused Russia of planning a coup in her country. With tensions rising and the possibility of further Russian aggression, the international community must closely monitor the situation in Transnistria.
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