November 19th 2024.
The recent decision made by US President Joe Biden to allow Ukraine to use longer-range missiles supplied by the US to strike targets inside Russia has caused alarm in the international community. The Kremlin has strongly condemned this move, warning that it will only add "fuel to the fire" of the ongoing conflict and increase tensions even further. This decision comes on the 1000-day milestone since Russia first invaded Ukraine in 2022.
The timing of this decision is particularly concerning as it comes in the last days of Biden's presidency, before President-elect Donald Trump takes over. Trump has previously stated that he would bring a swift end to the war, raising fears that this could result in unfavorable concessions from Ukraine.
The longer-range missiles in question are Army Tactical Missile Systems (ATACMs), developed by US company Lockheed Martin. These missiles have a striking distance of up to 300km, almost double the range of other weapons in Ukraine's possession. They are also more accurate and can target specific locations such as airfields, ammunition stores, and strategic infrastructure.
The US has already supplied Ukraine with dozens of these missiles, which have been used to destroy military targets in Russian-occupied parts of Ukraine. However, this decision marks the first time that Ukraine will be allowed to use them to strike inside Russian territory.
The Kremlin has expressed concern over the potential consequences of this decision, with President Vladimir Putin previously stating that it would significantly escalate the conflict and essentially mean that NATO countries are at war with Russia.
The US officials who revealed this decision have stated that it was made after months of deliberation and initially ruling out such a move due to fears of further escalation. However, the recent Russian ballistic missile attack on a residential area in northern Ukraine, which resulted in the deaths of 11 people, may have influenced the change in policy.
The US officials have also stated that the longer-range missiles will likely be used in response to the deployment of North Korean troops to support Russian forces. It is believed that these troops are being sent to help the Russian army drive Ukrainian forces out of the Kursk border region, where they launched an incursion in August.
The decision to allow Ukraine to use these missiles is seen as a way to level the playing field, as Russia is better resourced in the conflict. Ukraine has been requesting longer-range weapons from its Western allies to strike key Russian targets and weaken their air power and supply lines.
However, there are concerns about the effectiveness of these missiles. Some analysts believe that they may have limited impact, as Russia has already moved many key assets out of range. Others have pointed out that the missiles may not be able to reach the main threat faced by Ukraine – Russian-fired glide bombs that have a range of over 300km.
There are also questions about the restrictions that will be placed on the use of these missiles and how many will be given to Ukraine. The US has been providing ATACMs to Ukraine in various military aid packages, but the exact number remains unknown. With the recent US election, there are also uncertainties about how long this policy will be in place, as Trump has criticized the Biden administration's spending to support Ukraine.
This decision may also encourage other allies, such as Britain and France, to allow Ukraine to use their longer-range missiles. The situation in Ukraine remains volatile, and it is unclear how this development will impact the ongoing conflict. One thing is for sure – the use of these missiles will speak louder than words.
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