March 7th 2024.
The upcoming 2024 election has sparked a lot of interest in polls, especially those focusing on Black voters and their support for Donald Trump. It's been noted that Trump's numbers have been gradually increasing over the past three election cycles, but have never reached more than 15% of Black support. In 2016, he had 8% of the Black vote, and in 2020, he saw a slight increase to 12%. A recent poll by USA Today/Suffolk showed that while Biden's support among Black voters has dropped from 87% to 63%, Trump's support has remained steady at 12%.
David Paleologos, the director of Suffolk University's Political Research Center, believes that this shift in support for Biden doesn't necessarily mean that Black voters are choosing Trump. Instead, they may be leaning towards third-party candidates like Cornel West, a professor at Princeton. Other polls, such as one from Genforward, show even higher percentages of Black voters who are at least considering voting for Trump. Despite the fact that Republicans have historically struggled to capture more than 14% of the Black vote in general elections, this survey revealed that 17% of Black voters would have chosen Trump if the election had been held in December 2023.
However, the same survey also showed that 20% of Black voters would have voted for someone other than Trump or Biden, while 63% still favored Biden. According to Leah Wright Rigueur, an associate professor of history at Johns Hopkins University, the increase in support for Trump among Black voters isn't necessarily a vote for him, but rather a vote against the Democratic Party as a whole. She believes that many Black voters are fed up with the party and are looking for alternative options, even if that means considering Trump.
A recent survey by The New York Times/Siena revealed that many voters, including Black voters, believe that Trump's economic policies have been more beneficial to them than Biden's. 40% of respondents said that Trump's policies helped them, while only 43% said the same about Biden's policies. However, economist Nouriel Roubini warned that a Trump re-election could have negative effects on the economy, potentially leading to increased inflation. He believes that Trump could replace the current Fed Chair with someone who aligns more with his agenda, potentially causing even more harm to the economy.
Other economists share similar concerns about Trump's economic policies. Henry Tricks, an analyst for The Economist, believes that Trump's plans to increase tariffs could have damaging effects on the economy. He also notes that trade wars tend to disproportionately affect those who are already struggling financially, as they raise the prices of consumer goods.
Despite some of the criticism and backlash Trump has faced for his comments about Black people, there is still a chance that he could reach historic levels of Black support in the upcoming election. According to an NBC News poll, Black voters under the age of 34 show strong support for Trump, with 28% saying they would vote for him. This poll was conducted by Jeff Horwit, a Democratic pollster, and Bill McInturff, a Republican pollster, who expressed concern about the decline in support for Biden compared to the 2020 election. Horwit believes that the most concerning aspect is the loss of belief that Biden is capable of being an effective leader, which was a major selling point of his campaign.
In conclusion, as the 2024 election approaches, it's clear that Black support for Trump is on the rise, but the reasons behind this shift are still up for debate. Some believe it's a vote against the Democratic Party, while others see it as a genuine support for Trump's policies. Regardless, it will be interesting to see if Trump can break historic levels of Black support in the upcoming election.
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