May 30th 2024.
New Delhi is gearing up for the arrival of the southwest monsoon, thanks to the recent impact of Cyclone Remal. According to the India Meteorological Department, the monsoon is expected to hit the Kerala coast and parts of the northeast on Thursday, a day earlier than initially predicted.
The IMD stated on Wednesday that all conditions are in favor of the monsoon's arrival over Kerala within the next 24 hours. This comes as a surprise, as the weather office had previously announced the monsoon's onset to be on May 31st.
Experts believe that the recent Cyclone Remal, which caused devastation in West Bengal and Bangladesh, has played a role in pulling the monsoonal flow towards the Bay of Bengal. This may be one of the contributing factors to the early arrival of the monsoon in the north-eastern region.
Heavy rainfall has already been reported in Kerala over the past few days, resulting in an excess of May rainfall, as per weather office data. The normal onset date for the monsoon in states like Arunachal Pradesh, Tripura, Nagaland, Meghalaya, Mizoram, Manipur, and Assam is June 5th.
The IMD also stated that the conditions are favorable for further advancement of the southwest monsoon into other regions such as the South Arabian Sea, Maldives, Comorin, Lakshadweep, and the Bay of Bengal. The monsoon is also expected to reach some parts of the northeastern states during this period.
The monsoon's arrival is a crucial event for India's agricultural sector, with over half of the cultivated area relying on it. It also plays a significant role in replenishing reservoirs that provide drinking water and electricity across the country. The months of June and July are especially important for agriculture, as most of the sowing for the Kharif crop takes place during this period.
Experts have also noted that El Nino conditions are currently prevailing, but there is a possibility of La Nina setting in by August or September. El Nino, which refers to the periodic warming of surface waters in the central Pacific Ocean, is known to weaken monsoon winds and cause drier conditions in India. On the other hand, La Nina, which is the opposite of El Nino, results in abundant rainfall during the monsoon season.
Moreover, the IMD is also keeping an eye on the development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), which refers to cooler-than-normal temperatures in the eastern Indian Ocean compared to the western region. This phenomenon is known to bring rainfall to several states in southern India. Currently, the IOD is in a neutral state but is expected to turn positive by August.
Another factor that may impact the monsoon is the below-normal snow cover in the northern hemisphere and Eurasia. Historically, there has been an inverse relationship between the levels of snow in these regions and the monsoon. All these factors are being closely monitored by the IMD as the country eagerly awaits the arrival of the southwest monsoon.
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