January 26th 2024.
Russian President Vladimir Putin defied the west this week by making a surprise visit to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. This small territory, situated between Lithuania and Poland in the heart of Europe, has long been considered a potential flashpoint in the event of conflict between Russia and NATO. Putin's visit came as the UK government revealed their belief that there is a one-in-four chance of Russia attacking one of Britain's allies within the next two years, which could lead to a wider conflict between Moscow and the West.
On Thursday, Putin flew dangerously close to Nato's airspace, where there is an active warrant for his arrest for alleged war crimes and genocide in Ukraine. He then delivered a speech at Kant Baltic Federal University, warning neighboring countries to prepare for "what will follow" after many have torn down Soviet war memorials. "This is a stunning display of ignorance and lack of understanding of their own history, where they live, and the consequences of their actions," Putin told the crowd.
According to Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, Putin's visit was not meant to send a message to the West. However, he did reaffirm Putin's claim that "militaristic statements" from Baltic countries pose a risk to the Kaliningrad region. Just this week, Gen Martin Herem, the commander of Estonia's army, warned that Putin could invade the Baltic states within a year of the war in Ukraine ending.
Kaliningrad is thought to be a potential flashpoint in any future conflict between Russia and the West. Currently, the region is conducting the largest war games operation since the end of the Cold War, with 90,000 troops from Germany, Poland, and the Baltic states participating in Operation Steadfast Defender 2024 until the end of May. As a response to this, Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia - all of which were under Soviet occupation for decades after World War II - have agreed to establish a wall of "anti-mobility defensive installations" to protect their security against Russia.
Lithuania's foreign minister, Gabrielius Landsbergis, stated this week that his country is convinced that a real war with Russia is a likely possibility. With tensions rising and the potential for conflict increasing, Putin's visit to Kaliningrad served as a reminder of the volatile situation in the region. It remains to be seen how the West will respond to this show of defiance from the Russian president.
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