June 3rd 2024.
According to a recent mega poll, Labour is poised to win the upcoming General Election by a landslide over the Conservatives. This groundbreaking survey offers insights into the potential new makeup of the House of Commons, with YouGov predicting a historic victory for the Labour party and a potentially devastating result for the Conservatives.
In fact, the poll suggests that Labour could secure a majority of 194 seats, surpassing even their famous New Labour victory in 1997. Meanwhile, the Conservatives are projected to win just 140 seats, which would be their worst result since 1906. This means that they would lose a staggering 232 seats compared to the 2019 election.
The poll, which surveyed almost 60,000 people across the country, indicates that the Tories may face significant losses in London, the North East, the North West, and Wales. On the other hand, they are expected to retreat to their strongholds in the South East, South West, and East Anglia. According to Sky News, the Liberal Democrats are also set to make gains, potentially quadrupling their number of seats with 48 new wins.
But it's not just the Conservatives who are at risk of losing their seats. The poll also suggests that the Scottish National Party (SNP) could lose more than half of its seats in Scotland, with a projected total of just 17 out of 57. This would be the party's lowest score in a decade. Additionally, the Greens are expected to win two seats based on the poll, while Reform UK, now led by Nigel Farage, is projected to be left without any seats.
Some notable figures who may be at risk of losing their seats include Jacob Rees-Mogg and Chancellor Jeremy Hunt. Other prominent government officials, such as Defence Secretary Grant Shapps, Leader of the House of Commons Penny Mordaunt, and Attorney General Victoria Prentis, are also facing potential losses according to the poll. In total, the survey suggests that 22 out of the 45 government ministers are at risk if the election was held tomorrow.
For Labour, the Shadow Culture Secretary Thangham Debonnaire may also face a tough battle to keep her Bristol Central seat, with the Greens predicted to make gains. This mega poll, carried out for Sky News, used the MRP projection model for the first time in a General Election, providing valuable insights into the potential outcome of the upcoming vote.
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