September 21st 2024.
In July, Lucy Letby received a 15th whole life sentence for attempting to murder a newborn in the neonatal unit at the Countess of Chester Hospital. She was already facing a lifetime behind bars after being convicted of killing seven babies and attempting to murder six others. But now, Letby is mounting a new legal challenge against her most recent conviction.
The 34-year-old nurse's case has been under scrutiny, with experts at the Royal Statistical Society expressing concerns about the key piece of evidence used against her. This evidence was a chart that showed Letby was always on duty when newborns collapsed or died. It was presented to the jury and considered one of the most damning pieces of evidence against her.
However, statisticians were worried about the reliability of this data and held a meeting to discuss how statistics are used in court. They described the rota pattern as a "scientific fake" that could not be independently reproduced. They also noted that there could be other factors at play that may explain the deaths, and the use of the data was "worthless."
During the meeting, it was revealed that similar shift pattern data had been used to convict other nurses, who were later exonerated. Statisticians also warned that courts were abusing statistics in trials. This raises concerns about the safety of Letby's conviction.
Since her trial, experts have continued to raise concerns about the statistical evidence presented to the jury. Letby's new barrister, Mark McDonald, is examining this aspect of the prosecution's case. He believes that their failure to engage with statisticians and consider other factors and units undermines their analysis.
The use of the duty roster evidence was described as having a bigger impact on the trial than it deserved. Members of the Royal Statistical Society have called for parity in court cases, with statisticians present if statistical evidence is shown to the jury. They argue that, just as a toxicologist would be present for toxicology evidence, a statistician should be present for statistical evidence.
Meanwhile, Letby has filed an appeal against her conviction for attempted murder in July. The Court of Appeal will consider her case on October 24. A public inquiry, chaired by Lady Justice Thirlwall, has also begun to investigate the events surrounding Letby's crimes. The inquiry is expected to finish in early 2025, with the findings published in late autumn of that year.
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