June 5th 2024.
In recent news, it has been reported that the month of May has been the warmest on record, with extreme heat, rain, and floods causing chaos in various parts of the world. According to the latest data released on Wednesday, this has also marked the 12th consecutive month of record-high temperatures. Experts believe that this is a result of a combination of the weakening El Nino and the impact of human-caused climate change.
The European Union's climate agency, Copernicus Climate Change Service, has released an update on this matter, coinciding with the prediction made by the World Meteorological Organization. They have stated that there is an 80% chance that one of the next five years will see a temperature increase of at least 1.5 degrees Celsius compared to the beginning of the industrial age. Furthermore, they have also mentioned that there is an 86% chance that one of these years will break the current record set by 2023, which is currently the warmest year.
According to Copernicus, the global average temperature for May 2024 was 1.52 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial average of 1850-1900, marking the 11th consecutive month with temperatures at or above 1.5 degrees Celsius. However, it is essential to note that exceeding the 1.5 degrees Celsius limit, as specified in the Paris Agreement, refers to long-term warming over many years.
The European climate agency has also revealed that the global average temperature for the past 12 months has been the highest on record, with an increase of 0.75 degrees Celsius above the average from 1991-2020 and 1.63 degrees Celsius above the 1850-1900 pre-industrial average. Carlo Buontempo, the Director of Copernicus Climate Change Service, has expressed his shock at this data, stating that while this streak of record-breaking months may eventually come to an end, the overall trend of climate change remains, and there is no sign of it slowing down.
He also mentioned that even though we are living in unprecedented times, we have the necessary skills and tools to monitor the climate, which can help inform our actions. Buontempo believes that if we can stabilize the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere in the near future, we may be able to return to these "cold" temperatures by the end of the century.
Climate scientists have stressed the importance of limiting the global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial period to avoid the worst impacts of climate change. However, the Earth has already experienced a temperature increase of around 1.15 degrees Celsius compared to the average in 1850-1900 due to the rising concentration of greenhouse gases, primarily carbon dioxide and methane, in the atmosphere. This has resulted in devastating consequences such as droughts, wildfires, and floods worldwide.
In a recent study conducted by scientists at Germany's Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, it has been estimated that the economic impact of climate change could amount to USD 38 trillion annually by 2049. Unfortunately, the countries that are least responsible for this issue and have the least resources to adapt to its impacts are the ones that will suffer the most.
In the year 2023, the world experienced the warmest temperatures in the 174-year observational record, with the global average temperature at 1.45 degrees Celsius above the pre-industrial baseline. Experts believe that 2024 may set a new record, as El Nino, which is a periodic warming of the ocean surface in the central and eastern tropical Pacific Ocean, typically has the most significant impact on the global climate in its second year of development.
Under the combined effect of the 2023-24 El Nino and human-caused climate change, the world has been witnessing extreme weather conditions. In India, a brutal heatwave has led to nearly 25,000 suspected heat stroke cases and 56 deaths from March to May, according to a report by PTI. However, these numbers do not include deaths from Uttar Pradesh, Bihar, and Delhi, and the final count is expected to be much higher.
Weather agencies worldwide, including the India Meteorological Department, have predicted that La Nina conditions will prevail by August-September. While El Nino conditions are associated with weaker monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, La Nina conditions, which are the opposite of El Nino, bring plentiful rainfall during the monsoon season.
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