December 22nd 2024.
As we approach 2025, the anticipation for what the year holds is palpable. However, when I say "look forward to", I mean it in the sense of expecting rather than welcoming. It is evident that this year will be a defining one in many aspects. The most significant changes will occur after Donald Trump begins his second term as the President of the United States next month. The influence of US politics on the world stage is undeniable, but never before has a president like Trump been in power.
Interestingly, most American presidents, even those who campaigned for change, tend to prefer continuity. Even iconic figures like Barack Obama did not bring about significant policy changes, especially when it comes to war and the Middle East. In the last four decades, it has been challenging to differentiate between the economic policies of Democrat and Republican presidents. For instance, Joe Biden continued with Trump's tariffs on China, showcasing the lack of a clear shift in policies. However, Trump is different. His base and appeal lie in his disruptive nature and his desire to end the status quo. Moreover, he is unique in that he has won non-consecutive terms, a feat not achieved by any other sitting president. This means that unlike his predecessors, Trump campaigned against continuity, and he will not be seen as a lame-duck leader. Additionally, he is likely to anoint his successor as the head of the Republican Party. Despite being the leader of a party known for its conservatism, Trump's instincts are more radical.
Given these circumstances, it is safe to say that we can expect significant shifts in various areas. The most notable change will be with regards to China. It is no secret that Trump has always been vocal about his stance on China. In fact, his first campaign speech nine years ago mentioned China 23 times. During his presidency, he imposed tariffs on Chinese goods, which remain in place to this day. However, despite these efforts, China's economy has continued to grow rapidly, by 50% since Trump's famous escalator speech. It has become increasingly challenging for the US to contain China's growth, and the latter has now become a formidable force, both economically and militarily. This means that Trump will have to make a choice - either escalate the situation or back down. Given his campaign's foundations, it is unlikely that he will choose the latter. This decision will have a significant impact on the world and, in turn, affect us as well.
In recent times, there has been much talk about the 'China plus 1' strategy, where India is expected to benefit from companies moving away from China and exploring other markets. However, the reality is that for the past 25 years, India has been a beneficiary of open global trade. It is evident that we thrive when global trade is on the rise, and our exports suffer when trade slows down. This trend has remained consistent, irrespective of the government in power. Therefore, we must not assume that an escalation in the US-China trade war will work in our favor. In fact, it will harm everyone involved.
Another critical issue that will have a negative impact on the world is climate change. In his first term, Trump pulled the US out of the Paris Accords and has promised to shift the focus from green energy to more drilling and gasoline production. This will lead to a situation where America will continue to use fossil fuel-powered vehicles, while China strengthens its position as a leader in the production of electric and hybrid cars. It is unclear how Trump plans to address other global issues, such as the Israeli-Palestinian conflict and the Russian-Ukrainian war. However, it is worth noting that Trump has often expressed his desire for America to withdraw from wars. At the same time, it is difficult to discern the course of action he will take in 2025 based on the team he has chosen. During his campaign, Trump garnered support from Arab-American voters, particularly those of Lebanese origin in states like Michigan, who were unhappy with Biden. While it may be unrealistic to expect America to stop supplying weapons to Israel, which are used to commit atrocities against Palestinian children, any move that leads to a decrease in violence will be welcome.
It is astonishing that despite the chaos and turmoil that the US has been embroiled in since 2001, its Middle East policy has remained unchanged. Trump has more control over Israel's actions than he does over Russia's. He has also expressed his dislike for NATO and sees it as a burden rather than a strategic asset. He believes that NATO should pay for European security against potential Russian threats, instead of America bearing the cost. If his successor shares the same views, it will lead to a significant shift in the dynamics of the US's relationship with Europe, Mexico, and Canada. It may even result in these nations turning to China for trade and other alliances. As we look towards the future, it is common to expect significant changes that never fully materialize. However, it is unlikely that this will be the case in 2025 and the following years under Trump's leadership. Progress in various areas such as artificial intelligence, climate change, space exploration, inequality, and authoritarianism is happening at a rapid pace, almost beyond our control. It is undoubtedly going to be an eventful year, although it remains to be seen if the events that unfold are welcomed.
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