July 7th 2024.
Excitement and joy have taken over France as the exit polls show a surprising outcome in the recent elections. Marine Le Pen, leader of the far-right National Rally party, has suffered a shocking defeat, dashing hopes of becoming the first far-right government in France since World War II. The unexpected victory of the leftist coalition, New Popular Front, has caused a major upset, pushing RN to third place.
The projections indicate that New Popular Front is leading with 172-205 seats, followed by President Emmanuel Macron's centrist Ensemble alliance with 150-175 seats. RN, on the other hand, is projected to have only 115-150 seats, falling short of their expected outright win. As a result, none of the parties are likely to secure the 289 seats needed for an absolute majority.
Supporters of the leftist party were seen celebrating wildly, relieved by the outcome of the exit polls. The lead of New Popular Front, despite not having an absolute majority, was a cause for cheers and jubilation among its supporters. On the other hand, Marine Le Pen and her party are likely to be stunned by these results.
The lack of a clear majority for any single alliance has plunged the nation into political and economic turmoil. The final results will not be announced until late Sunday or early Monday, adding to the volatility of this snap election called just four weeks ago by President Macron, who lost control of parliament according to the projections.
Flares were set off in the streets as supporters of New Popular Front celebrated their exit poll victory. This situation is unprecedented in French politics, leaving the country in a state of uncertainty. The snap legislative elections will have a significant impact on international affairs, including the war in Ukraine and Europe's economic stability, as France is a major economy and a nuclear-armed nation.
The coming weeks will be filled with political scrambling as France tries to determine who will be the prime minister and lead the National Assembly. For the first time, President Macron could find himself working with a prime minister who opposes most of his domestic policies, creating an unfamiliar and potentially difficult situation for the country.
Jean-Luc Melenchon, the leader of the leftist coalition, expressed immense relief at the exit poll results and demanded the resignation of the current prime minister. He is one of the many unexpected leaders who came together before the elections. If the projections are confirmed, it will create uncertainty for the European Union and its second-largest economy, with no clarity on who will partner with President Macron as prime minister.
This political unknown comes at a bad time, with the Paris Olympics opening in less than three weeks. A hung parliament is uncharted territory for modern France, and unlike other European countries, there is no tradition of political parties forming coalitions to create a working majority. Any majority formed in this manner would be fragile and vulnerable to no-confidence votes that could lead to its downfall.
Prolonged instability could also lead to suggestions from President Macron's opponents that he should cut short his second and final term. However, the French Constitution prevents him from dissolving parliament again in the next 12 months, limiting his options for finding a solution to this uncertainty. Just last week, protests erupted in Paris after RN won the first round of elections, adding to the tension and uncertainty surrounding this situation.
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