August 9th 2024.
On Friday, Russia announced a "federal-level" emergency in the Kursk region, in response to a large-scale incursion from Ukraine. The incursion occurred four days ago, with hundreds of Ukrainian troops crossing the border and launching what appeared to be the biggest attack on Russian soil since the start of the war. As a result, Russia has sent reinforcements to the area to combat this daring move by Ukraine.
In the midst of this conflict, tragedy struck when a Russian plane-launched missile struck a shopping mall in Kostiantynivka, killing at least 11 people and injuring 44 others. The mall, located in a residential area, was engulfed in thick black smoke after the strike. Vadym Filashkin, the head of the Donetsk region, condemned this act of terror by the Russians in a post on Telegram.
Sadly, this was not the first time that Kostiantynivka had been targeted. Last September, a Russian missile hit an outdoor market in the town, claiming the lives of 17 people. In response to these attacks, Russia's Defence Ministry announced that they were sending reinforcements to Kursk, including multiple rocket launchers, towed artillery guns, tanks, and heavy tracked vehicles. Alexei Smirnov, the acting governor of Kursk, acknowledged the difficult situation in the region and emphasized that social services and civic associations are providing aid to those affected by the fighting.
The conflict has also spread to the western outskirts of Sudzha, a town located about 10 kilometers from the border. The town holds an important pipeline transit hub for Russian natural gas, making it a strategic target for both sides. As a result, civilians are being forced to flee their homes as the fighting intensifies. The Russian Defense Ministry has reported that over 3000 people have been evacuated from Kursk.
There is still much uncertainty surrounding the surprise Ukrainian operation, with its strategic goals remaining unclear. Ukrainian officials have refused to comment on the incursion, which is taking place about 500 kilometers from Moscow. However, Myhailo Podolyak, a top adviser to Ukraine President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, believes that these attacks on the border regions will make Russia realize that the war is slowly creeping onto their territory. He also suggested that this operation would strengthen Ukraine's position in future negotiations with Moscow.
Defense analyst Mathieu Boulegue believes that the Ukrainian forces have a specific goal in mind, even though it has not been revealed. He explained that such a coordinated ground force movement indicates a clear military objective that requires a high level of operational security. Boulegue also noted that this attack was a major blow to Russian President Vladimir Putin and a significant public relations victory for Ukraine.
The assault has caused fear and panic among the Russian public while also demonstrating to Putin that the war is not frozen, and it is slowly approaching their doorstep. The attack also coincides with the intense Russian push in eastern Ukraine, where the Ukrainian army is struggling to hold back the Kremlin's forces. Putin has made it clear that he wants to capture the parts of Donetsk that are still under Ukrainian control.
According to Russian law, a federal level emergency is declared when there are more than 500 victims or when the damage exceeds 500 million rubles. The ongoing conflict in Kursk has received significant attention in Russian media, with news websites and state television dedicating extensive coverage to the situation. However, there has been no reporting from the front lines, and the coverage has mainly focused on the humanitarian aspect of the conflict.
The Institute for the Study of War, a think tank based in Washington, believes that the Ukrainian forces have made rapid advances into the Kursk region, going as far as 35 kilometers beyond the border. They also noted the lack of a coherent Russian response to the incursion, indicating that the Ukrainian forces were able to achieve operational surprise. The Russian Defence Ministry has confirmed that they are still fighting to repel the invasion and have responded with airstrikes, artillery, and ground troops.
Meanwhile, Ukraine has continued its strategy of targeting Russian infrastructure with long-range drones, including military sites and oil refineries. On Thursday night, Ukrainian drones attacked the Lipetsk region, located around 300 kilometers from the Ukrainian border. According to a security official, the drones successfully hit a military airfield there, which was used as a base for fighter jets and helicopters. The Russian Defence Ministry claims to have shot down 75 Ukrainian drones during the night, with 19 of them over Lipetsk. This attack has further escalated the already tense situation between Russia and Ukraine.
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