August 13th 2024.
Last Thursday, the ground in parts of western Japan was hit by tremors, causing concern among local and national government bodies. Meteorologists quickly gathered and issued a temporary tsunami advisory, while a special committee issued a warning that another "major earthquake" could strike in the coming week. This was the first time in history that the committee had issued a nationwide advisory of this kind.
As a precaution, high-speed trains were slowed down, leading to travel delays, and the country's prime minister cancelled his overseas trips. Initially, there were fears of significant damage from the 7.1-magnitude quake, but fortunately, the government was able to lift most advisories and report no major damage.
However, despite the situation being under control, the country continues to remain on high alert, especially during the peak travel season of summer holidays. This reflects Japan's strong focus on earthquake preparedness. On the other hand, some experts have raised doubts about the necessity and accuracy of issuing such advisories. They also question whether it may divert resources away from communities considered to be at lower risk.
Japan has a history of experiencing severe earthquakes, as it is located on the Ring of Fire - an area known for intense seismic and volcanic activity around the Pacific Ocean. According to Shoichi Yoshioka, a professor at Kobe University, Japan's location on the boundaries of four tectonic plates makes it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world. He also pointed out that around 10% of the world's earthquakes of magnitude 6 or higher occur in or around Japan, making the risk much higher compared to other regions like Europe or the eastern United States, where earthquakes are rare.
The most devastating earthquake in recent Japanese history was the 9.1 magnitude Tohoku earthquake in 2011, which triggered a major tsunami and nuclear disaster, resulting in the loss of around 20,000 lives. There is also the looming threat of the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake - the most powerful of its kind, with potential magnitudes exceeding 9. Seismologists predict that this could occur within the next few decades, although there is still debate within the scientific community about the exact timeline.
The Japanese government has been warning about the possibility of a Nankai Trough earthquake for many years, and it has become common knowledge among the public. However, this issue has also sparked controversy, with some scientists arguing that it is not effective to solely focus on the slim chances of a hypothetical earthquake in one specific area, when other parts of the country face similar threats but receive less attention.
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometre-long subduction zone, where tectonic plates slip beneath each other. This is a common cause of earthquakes and tsunamis around the world, with the most powerful ones often occurring in subduction zones. In this case, the Philippine Sea plate is slowly moving beneath the continental plate where Japan is located, shifting several centimetres each year, as reported by the government's Earthquake Research Committee in 2013.
According to the committee, severe earthquakes have been recorded every 100 to 200 years at the Nankai Trough. The last two major quakes occurred in 1944 and 1946, measuring 8.1 in magnitude, and causing widespread devastation with thousands of deaths and injuries, as well as destruction of homes. Based on the intervals between these major quakes, the Japanese government has warned that there is a 70-80% chance of another earthquake of magnitude 8-9 occurring within the next 30 years.
However, these forecasts and the usefulness of making long-term, imprecise predictions have faced criticism from experts. Shoichi Yoshioka believes that the 70-80% figure may be too high, and that the data is based on a specific theory, making it prone to errors. Nonetheless, he is certain that a major earthquake will occur in this area in the future. On the other hand, Robert Geller, a seismologist and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, is more skeptical, stating that the Nankai Trough earthquake is a "made-up construct" and a "purely hypothetical scenario". He also argues that earthquakes do not occur in cycles and can happen at any time and place, making it pointless to predict their occurrence based on past events.
Last Thursday, western Japan was hit by tremors, causing panic and concern among the local and national government bodies. In response, meteorologists gathered to assess the situation and issued a temporary tsunami advisory. This was a rare occurrence, as it was the first time in history that a nationwide advisory had been issued.
The advisory was accompanied by a warning from a special committee that another major earthquake could strike within the coming week. As a precaution, high-speed trains slowed down, causing travel delays, and the country's prime minister had to cancel his overseas trips.
Thankfully, the 7.1-magnitude quake did not cause any major damage, and the government lifted most advisories. However, the country remains on high alert as it is currently peak travel season during the summer holidays. This reflects Japan's focus on being prepared for earthquakes and other natural disasters.
Despite the government's efforts, some experts have raised doubts about the necessity and accuracy of such advisories. They also question whether it diverts resources away from lower-risk areas that may also be in need of preparation.
Japan is no stranger to severe earthquakes, as it is located on the Ring of Fire, an area known for its intense seismic and volcanic activity. According to Shoichi Yoshioka, a professor at Kobe University, Japan's location on the boundaries of four tectonic plates makes it one of the most earthquake-prone areas in the world. He also stated that about 10% of the world's magnitude 6 or higher earthquakes occur in or around Japan, making the risk much higher than in other parts of the world.
The worst earthquake in recent Japanese history was the 9.1 magnitude Tohoku earthquake in 2011, which triggered a major tsunami and nuclear disaster. Sadly, it resulted in the loss of about 20,000 lives. There is also the looming danger of the Nankai Trough megathrust earthquake, which is said to be the most powerful of its kind with magnitudes that can exceed 9. Seismologists predict that this earthquake could occur within the next few decades, but there is still some dispute over the exact timeline.
The Japanese government has been warning about the possibility of a Nankai Trough earthquake for many years, and it has become common knowledge among the public. However, some scientists argue that it is not effective to focus solely on the slim chance of a hypothetical earthquake in one specific area, especially when other parts of the country face similar threats but receive less attention.
The Nankai Trough is a 700-kilometer-long subduction zone, where tectonic plates slip beneath each other. According to a 2013 report by the government's Earthquake Research Committee, this movement causes most of the world's earthquakes and tsunamis, with the most powerful occurring in subduction zones. The committee also reported that severe earthquakes have been recorded every 100 to 200 years at the Nankai Trough. The last two earthquakes in 1944 and 1946 had a magnitude of 8.1 and caused widespread devastation, resulting in thousands of deaths and destruction of homes.
Based on the intervals between these major earthquakes, the Japanese government has warned that there is a 70% to 80% chance of another Nankai Trough earthquake occurring within the next 30 years, with a magnitude between 8 and 9. However, these forecasts and the value of making long-term predictions have been met with resistance from some experts.
According to Yoshioka, the 70% to 80% figure may be too high, and it is based on one theory, making it prone to errors. Nevertheless, he believes that a major earthquake will occur in this area in the future. On the other hand, Robert Geller, a seismologist and professor emeritus at the University of Tokyo, is more skeptical. He refers to the Nankai Trough earthquake as a "made-up construct" and a "purely hypothetical scenario." He also argues that earthquakes do not occur in cycles, and their timing and location are unpredictable, making it pointless to calculate when the next one will strike based on past occurrences.
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