Israel and the United States have steadfastly said for years that Iran cannot have a nuclear weapon.
They view a nuclear Iran — a belligerent country whose leadership constantly chants “Death to Israel” and “Death to America” — as an existential threat to the survival of Israel and as a trigger for a gigantic regional war in the Middle East — read a prelude to WWIII.
[Step back a second, amigo — for decades Iran has been the largest exporter of terrorism most of it targeted on Israel via the proxies of Hamas, Hezbollah, Syrian terror groups, and the Houthis who have wreaked havoc on Lebanon, Syria, Yemen, and Iraq. Recently the Israelis have dealt with all of these groups.
Is there any doubt that if Iran developed nuclear weapons it would in any way hesitate to use them against Israel?]
In addition, Iran has an advanced missile, drone, and cruise missile program with a large stockpile of such weapons. This is some serious shit.
Ayatollah Khamenei, the Supreme Leader of Iran — he may no longer be with us as of right now, but he won’t be with us much longer in any event.
Unfortunately, this American and Israeli sentiment did not materially impact Iran’s desire to make a nuclear weapon and when they were on the verge of being able to make a nuclear weapon, Israel four days ago struck Iran in a preemptive attack to ensure Iran did not make a nuclear weapon.
Iran is generally 1,000 miles from Israel; that requires the Israeli planes to refuel enroute and on the way back from their targets. This puts tremendous pressure on the refueling capabilities of Israel. The Israel Air Force is crackerjack and can keep this level of operational vigor up for months.
It is worth nothing the Israelis have achieved complete, uncontested air supremeacy over the skies of Iran and that the Iranian air force has failed to rise into those skies. Air superiority is a critical step in any war.
The Israeli target list is long, but started with the nuclear enrichment sites and missile storage, launcher, and production sites. Initial indications are that Israel hit what they wanted and are now going back to ensure these sites are fully destroyed — this is the dividend of air supremacy.
The smart money says Israel has a 4-6 week long target list and is now focusing on missile launchers having knocked out more than a third of Iran’s launch capability.
The nuclear sites that are underground may continue to survive as structures, but their entrance points and utility supplies are no longer operational.
The Israels hit the following targets:
1. Natanz — the Big Enchilada — 140 miles south of Teheran where Iranian enrichment of uranium has already surpassed 60% (some say they have reached 83%, weapons grade level of enrichment and enough for somewhere between 6 and 15 bombs) and located far, far, far underground.
Israel will need the American GBU-57 Massive Ordnance Penetrator, a 30,000 lbs bomb that can penetrate 200′ of reinforced concrete, but requires an American B-2 or a B-52 to deliver. Israel does not have the bomb or the aircraft.
Alternatively, the Israelis may seek the American GBU-72 Advanced 5K Penetrator, a 5,000 lbs bomb designed to attack deep targets and deliverable by the US F-16 Strike Eagle which Israel possesses. Israel has the aircraft, but no bomb.
2. Fordow — the Big Burrito, uranium enrichment plant — 100 miles south of Teheran built into a mountain and hard to reach though the Israelis have destroyed access and utilities rendering it effectively unusable though not destroyed.
3. Isfahan — weapons research, assembly, and enriched uranium storage — 270 miles south of Teheran. Israelis have destroyed the facility, but purposely did not hit the enriched uranium stockpile.
4. Parchin — weapons assembly — 20 miles southeast of Teheran, destroyed by Israel in 10-2024.
5. Arak Heavy Water Reactor — near Arak in Markazi, Province — is a gateway to plutonium production, a different path than enriched uranium, thought to be inactive and not struck by the Israelis.
In addition to these high priority targets, Israel also has Beshehr Nuclear Power Plant, Tehran Research Reactor, Saghand Uranium Mine, Gchine Uranium Mine, and Ardakhan Yellow Production Plant on its list of locations to disappear.
In addition to hard targets to obliterate, the Israelis have mostly successfully decapitated the snake.
The Ayatollah allegedly lives only because the US — Donald Trump — wants him alive.
The Israelis using a combination of men on the ground and bombs assassinated
1. a substantial part of the military leadership (12 senior officers including the head of the army and the Quds),
2. almost every prominent nuclear scientist (15, many killed at the location of the nuclear facilities) involved in the nuke program, and,
3. a handful of politicians (2 including the Ayatollah’s closest adviser) with hard line views.
Do not think for a second the Iranians do not have a substantial arsenal of weapons with which to respond.
When the war started, the Iranians had:
1. An arsenal of 3,000 different types of short, medium, and long range ballistic missiles with the medium and long range missiles fully capable of reaching Israel and its major cities.
Currently, they are believed to have used or had destroyed by Israeli attacks in Iran more than a third of that 3,000 number.
2. An arsenal of 20-50,000 Shahed loitering drones with a range of different speeds. Iran has a meaningful production capability for drones and is actively selling them every month to the Russians to use in Ukraine.
Israeli capabilities are more than sufficient to stop every single one of these drones and the Iranians often use their drones to cloud the target picture for Israeli defensive forces.
3. An arsenal of 2-500 cruise missiles.
The chokepoint for much of the Iranian missile program is the launchers. They had approximately 200-350 launchers and have already lost more than a third of them. Not all launchers are created equal with only some subset capable of launching MRBM and LRBM (medium or long range ballistic missiles).
The set up, fueling, launch, and tear down of these mobile units creates a window of vulnerability that the Israeli Air Force can capitalize upon to identify and destroy them.
Israel factored these weapons into their planning and have been hitting launchers, missile stockpiles, and missile manufacturing plants.
The Iranians have been hitting Israel in strikes that combine missiles and drones with some of the missiles, but virtually none of the drones, getting through Israel’s anti-missile defenses.
I suspect the following actions materialize:
1. Israel will continue to grind down Iranian capabilities including its ability to ship oil and generate revenue. Continuing for a month, this is a near fatal blow to the Iranian economy and government funding.
Nobody is talking about this, but the Iranian economy is a fatal and fragile weak spot.
2. Israel cannot reach the depths below ground necessary to really destroy some of the most essential enrichment and assembly sites and will require American munitions to finish the job. The US will likely provide this assistance.
I predict the US jumps in with air support.
3. The time for negotiations has passed. Iran overplayed its hand. Leaving the existing regime in power seems unlikely and the Ayatollah is alive today only because of the whim of President Trump.
Regime change — count on it. A free Iran could be a huge asset to the world.
4. The Russians have a vital interest because they just signed a 20-year mutual alliance with Iran — no mutual defense feature in the pact — and they buy a lot of Iranian drones for their Ukraine war effort.
The Iranians are building a drone factory in Russia.
5. Russia and China are both supportive of Iran and opposed to Israel, but the Chinese buy a lot of Iranian oil, essentially all of it. So, China’s interest is very much an economic self-interest.
Russia would sell a lot more energy to China if Iran is out of the market temporarily.
6. For Russia this is another in a series of humiliating events that have eliminated their influence in the region. Egypt abandoned them after the 1973 War, Syria is over for the Russians, and now Iran is on the edge of regime change. So, Russia is revealed as a bit player and that has to piss Putin off.
OK, here it is:
1. This fight goes on as Israel bombs the bejesus out of any Iranian nuclear or military facility.
2. Outside countries like Russia, China, Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Pakistan are unhappy and mumbling about assisting Iran, but it’s a fool’s errand. Still, they could complicate things as Pakistan is an unstable nuclear country.
3. The US gets in by providing bunker busting bombs such as the GBU-72/57 and aircraft sufficient to deliver them.
4. There will be regime change in Iran and the Iranian people will be free again. This will happen before Labor Day.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car. Peace on Earth, goodwill to all men.
