Initial election insights: Next leader inherits divided country.

The division hasn't been this clear since the 1968 election.

November 6th 2024.

Initial election insights: Next leader inherits divided country.
As the polls closed on Tuesday night, the 2024 presidential election was still too close to call. But as the votes continue to be tallied, it has become apparent that the United States is a deeply divided nation, with the candidates having to navigate through complex issues of class, race, and age. On top of that, they faced the constant threat of misinformation and violence, adding another layer of tension to an already heated election.

Early data suggests that Republican candidate Donald Trump may have benefited from these shifts more than his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris. Some experts have drawn comparisons to the 1968 election, when the country was in turmoil due to racial tensions and the Vietnam War. The divisions that were exposed during that election seem to be resurfacing now, in an even more apparent way.

But perhaps the most obvious conclusion to be drawn from this election is that the United States is on the verge of making history. Either Harris will become the first female president, or Trump will become the first president with a felony conviction. Despite the chaos and controversy surrounding his presidency, Trump has maintained a level of political strength that has yet to significantly impact his popularity among voters.

As the votes continue to be counted, some early takeaways have emerged. One of the most notable is the shift in the battleground map and the coalitions that have formed around the candidates. Historically, Black voters have been a strong base for the Democratic Party, as have young voters and Latino voters. However, preliminary data from AP VoteCast, a survey of over 115,000 voters, suggests that these groups may have shifted in Trump's direction.

While young voters still overwhelmingly supported the Democratic candidate, the margin was smaller than in previous elections. Only about half of voters under 30 supported Harris, compared to six in ten who backed Biden in 2020. On the other hand, Trump's support among this age group increased from one-third to over four in ten.

There was also a noticeable shift among Black and Latino voters, who appeared to be slightly less likely to support Harris than they were to support Biden in 2020. About eight in ten Black voters backed Harris, down from nine in ten who supported Biden. Similarly, over half of Hispanic voters supported Harris, but that number was slightly lower than the six in ten who supported Biden in the previous election. Trump's support among these groups also seemed to have risen slightly.

During his campaign, Trump had boasted about gaining more support from Black and Latino men than he had in previous elections. On the other hand, Harris targeted more educated voters, including moderate Republicans who were turned off by Trump's divisive rhetoric and policies. As the results continue to come in, it will be interesting to see how these shifts in support will ultimately impact the final outcome of the election.
As the nation anxiously awaited the results of the 2024 presidential election on Tuesday night, the deep divides within our country were further exposed. Amidst the constant threat of misinformation and violence, the candidates navigated through political shifts based on class, race, and age. Early data suggests that Republican candidate Donald Trump may have the advantage in these shifts, compared to his opponent, Democrat Kamala Harris.

The stark divisions within the nation are reminiscent of the tumultuous 1968 election, when the country was torn apart by racial tensions and the ongoing Vietnam War. However, the most glaring conclusion of this election thus far is a simple one: the United States is on the verge of electing either its first female president in Harris or its first president with a felony conviction in Trump. Despite the chaos and controversies surrounding his presidency, Trump has managed to maintain a strong hold on his supporters.

As votes continue to be counted across the country, some early takeaways have emerged. One notable change is the new battleground map and the scrambled coalitions of voters. While traditionally, Black voters have been a stronghold for the Democratic Party, as well as Latino and young voters, this election has seen a shift towards Trump in these groups.

According to AP VoteCast, a comprehensive survey of over 115,000 voters nationwide, a higher percentage of young voters under 30 supported Harris compared to Biden in the 2020 election. However, roughly 4 in 10 of these young voters still chose to support Trump, a significant increase from the previous election. Additionally, Black and Latino voters, who have typically leaned towards the Democratic Party, showed a slight decrease in support for Harris compared to Biden in 2020.

This shift in support among these key groups has been a key factor in the election results thus far. As the votes continue to be counted, it is clear that both candidates have attracted a diverse range of supporters. For Trump, this includes a boastful claim of gaining more support from Black and Latino men than in previous elections. On the other hand, Harris has been able to appeal to more educated voters, including moderate Republicans who have been turned off by Trump's controversial presidency.

In the end, the outcome of this election will not only determine the next president of the United States, but it will also serve as a reflection of the deep divisions within our nation. As we await the final results, it is clear that this election has highlighted the need for unity and healing in a fractured country.

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