We wrote about the numbers of Russian tanks back in December 2022. That blog post is here:
Since then several things have happened:
1. The Russian spring offensive began with attacks in southeast Ukraine and the continuing assault into the Bahkmut meat grinder where the Russians take seven KIAs for every one KIA for the Ukrainians.
This is the essence of a meat grinder.
2. The Russians — even elite units — and the mercenary Wagner Group — powered by criminals — have made small progress, but appear to have taken a “tactical respite” for a couple of weeks.
The Ukrainians are doggedly defending and buying time for their own Spring/Summer dry land offensive.
3. The US/NATO/West has promised Ukraine modern main battle tanks — Abrams M1A1, Crusaders 2s, Leopard IIs and others.
Deliveries are now happening.
Abrams tank — looking for work — arriving for deployment in Ukraine.
4. The Russian tank situation has gotten worse from the perspective of raw numbers, tank crew training, and opposition.
Here’s what we know:
1. Russian tank losses are massive as noted before. This is due to Ukrainian courage and drones, ATGMs, and tanks.
The Orcs have lost more than 2/3rds of their original 3,000 tank invading force.
The original invasion force included 2,000 T-72s and more than 3/4s of them are out of service.
2. The Russians have limited capabilities to produce more modern tanks. This is the impact, ikn part, of the economic embargo. Well played.
The Orcs have two factories: Uralvagonzavod in Sverdlosk Oblast and also Omsktransmash in Omsk Oblast.
3. The Russians are taking 1960s vintage T-62 tanks (first introduced in 1961) from inventory, remanufacturing them, and replenishing armored units with these vintage and grossly inadequate tanks.
The Russian tanks are: the T-14, T-90, T-80, T-72, and the T-62. There are variations of all of them.
The first four have 120mm guns, three man crews, autoloaders, and varying forms of armor.
The T-14 Armata
The top Russian tank is the mythical T-14 which was to be the Russian main battle tank of the future with a 120mm gun with varying types of ammunition, a three man crew, an autoloader, advanced optics, and advanced armor. It was designed to go toe-to-toe with the Abrams, the Leopard, and the Challenger.
It is essentially an untried bit of blingy kit.
It is a “boutique” tank meaning they have never achieved a consistent manufacturing run. The Orcs claim they spit out 200 of them, but it is more likely the number is actually a couple of dozen all made by hand in Uralvagonzavod.
The Russians are struggling to run their tank facilities due to a shortage of parts and chips. There will be no new T-14s.
The T-90
The T-90 was under development just as the USSR cratered. It was an improvement on the T-72 and had a better engine, gun, thermal sights, armor, and fire control system. Production was on and off.
The Ukrainians killed off most of the T-90s.
The T-80
The T-80 tank was developed from the T-64 tank and is an inferior tank. Some have diesel engines and some turbine engines. There is no current production of T-80 tanks.
The T-72
The T-72 — in its many variations — is the workhorse of the Russian tank corps in Ukraine, but it has been devastated by Ukrainian tanks, drones, and ATGMs.
There were as many as 2,000 T-72s and the Ukrainians knocked out about 1,500 of them. There are supposedly 500 recoverable T-72s in storage. This is not very many.
The T-62
The T-62 is an ancient tank and has none of the bells and whistles of the newer versions of Russian tanks — no big gun (105mm v 120 or 125mm), no autoloader, no three man crew, no advanced sights, no advanced fire control system, no modern armor or other armor add ons.
It is truly inferior, but the Orcs seem to have 5,000 of the little jewels in storage and they are beginning to drag them out of storage to refurbish for Ukraine combat.
A good deal of Russia’s problem in making up losses of even its elite 1st Guards Tank Army is that the production rate of Russian tank factories is abysmal. 1st Guards was devastated north of Kyiv and around Kharkiv.
It is believed the Russians can produce 20 new tanks per month and refurbish 50 tanks per month. This is all material, chips, and manpower constrained.
These are Russian numbers, so I believe the actual numbers are substantially less.
In a protracted war, the Russians are fucked. Praise God.
It is not enough to produce tanks, you have to crew them and you have to train those crews, in particular gunnery practice.
There can be no doubt the Russians lost a lot of experienced tank crews and experienced tank crews are not growing on trees.
The US Army wet fires its tank crews about 120 rounds per year. The Russians have been firing 4 rounds per year and not even a lot of dry humping.
When the modern western Abrams, Challenger, and Leopard tanks arrive and have infrared sights that can reach out to 3,500 yards, the Russians are screwed.
By all accounts, the Ukrainians will receive about 350 additional tanks, some of which have already arrived. About 100 of these will be modern main battle tanks.
The Russians are in a very tight spot as it relates to its ability to contest Ukraine using tanks. This will become apparent when the Ukrainians launch their Spring/Summer Offensive that will not happen until they get their promised tanks.
The Abrams, Leopard, Challenger tanks will crush the Russians. They will make an excellent spear head to cut the land bridge between Russia and Crimea.
God bless the Ukrainians and their tanks.
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
Saint Olga of Kyiv, ask God to grace the Ukrainian tankers with courage, stamina, great eyesight, and superb gunnery. May they fight like lions and smite the enemy at 3,500 meters with accurate HEAT rounds. May the Orcs feel the heat of those rounds and may their tanks become incinerators. Amen.
