January 5th 2025.
When we see the images of the two recent fatal air crashes, it's hard to not feel a sense of fear and sadness. As a frequent flyer, you may have wondered about the safest place to sit on a plane. There's an old saying that sitting at the back of the plane is safer than sitting at the front, and the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216 seem to support this idea.
In the Azeri crash, all 29 survivors were sitting at the back of the plane, which split in two. Similarly, in the South Korean crash, the only survivors were the two flight attendants in the tail of the plane. So, does this mean that the old saying is true? Are first and business class seats just a joke when it comes to safety?
In 2015, TIME Magazine conducted a study of all US plane crashes with both fatalities and survivors from 1985 to 2000. They found that the back third of the plane had the lowest fatality rate at 32%, compared to 38% in the front third and 39% in the middle third. Additionally, middle seats in the back third had a fatality rate of 28%, while aisle seats in the middle third had the highest fatality rate at 44%.
But is this still true in 2024? According to aviation safety experts, it's just an old wives' tale. "There isn't any data that shows a correlation of seating to survivability," says Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation. Cheng-Lung Wu, an associate professor at the University of New South Wales, agrees, stating that in a fatal crash, there's almost no difference in survival rates based on where you sit.
Ed Galea, a professor of fire safety engineering, warns that there's a difference between the seat with the best chance of surviving an initial impact and the seat that allows for a quick evacuation. He says that instead of looking for the "safest" seat, we should focus on how quickly we can get off the plane in case of an emergency.
The good news is that the majority of aircraft accidents are survivable. Since 1988, planes have been built to withstand impacts up to 16 times the force of gravity. So even in most incidents, it's possible to survive the initial impact. For example, the Jeju Air incident, where the plane lost an engine and landed on its belly, could have been survivable if it hadn't hit an obstacle at the end of the runway.
In contrast, the Azerbaijan Airlines crash was deemed non-survivable, and it's considered a miracle that anyone survived. However, modern planes are built to withstand impacts and slow the spread of fire, giving passengers a 90% chance of survival in "survivable" accidents.
But in these situations, time is of the essence. The faster passengers can evacuate, the more lives are saved. That's why modern aircraft must be able to evacuate in 90 seconds to gain certification. However, this is based on a theoretical evacuation with volunteers, not a real-life emergency with panicked passengers.
Galea's research, which looked at human behavior during post-crash evacuations, showed that passengers seated within five rows of an emergency exit have the best chance of survival. Additionally, those in aisle seats have a better chance of evacuating than those in middle or window seats, as they have fewer people to get past.
However, not every exit may be usable during an emergency. In these situations, the behavior of the crew and passengers can make a difference. For example, when Japan Airlines flight 516 crashed into a coastguard plane, only three of the eight evacuation slides were usable. But due to the quick and orderly evacuation, all 379 people on board survived.
Galea's research also shattered myths about aircraft evacuation. Contrary to popular belief, passengers don't just use their boarding exit and don't always go forward. Instead, they tend to use the nearest exit, regardless of where they are seated. This is why sitting within five rows of an exit is important.
So, what can we do to increase our chances of survival? First, pick a seat within five rows of an emergency exit. If that's not available, choose an aisle seat over a middle or window seat. And in case of an incident, be prepared to act quickly and follow the instructions of the crew.
As Galea says, "Chance favors the prepared mind." Being aware of what to do in an emergency can increase our chances of survival. So, while we can't control where an accident occurs, we can control how we prepare for it.
As we look at the harrowing images of the recent plane crashes, one question comes to mind for those who fly frequently: is it truly safer to sit in the back of the plane? This age-old belief has been reinforced by the wreckage of both Azerbaijan Airlines flight 8243 and Jeju Air flight 2216, where the survivors were predominantly seated at the rear of the aircraft.
In the Azeri crash, all 29 survivors were seated at the back of the plane, which split into two upon impact, leaving the rear half relatively intact. Similarly, the only survivors of the South Korean flight were the two flight attendants who were in their jumpseats at the very tail of the plane. Does this mean that the jokes about first and business class seats being "good until there's a problem with the plane" hold some truth after all?
Back in 2015, TIME Magazine conducted a comprehensive analysis of plane crashes in the US over a 15-year period, from 1985 to 2000. Their findings revealed that the back third of the aircraft had a 32% fatality rate, while the front and middle thirds had rates of 38% and 39%, respectively. Interestingly, the middle seats in the back third had the lowest fatality rate at 28%, while aisle seats in the middle third were deemed the riskiest with a fatality rate of 44%.
But the question remains, is this still applicable in today's world? According to aviation safety experts, this belief is nothing more than an old wives' tale. Hassan Shahidi, president of the Flight Safety Foundation, stated that there is no data to support a correlation between seating and survivability. Each accident is unique and cannot be generalized based on where one is seated on the plane.
Cheng-Lung Wu, an associate professor at the School of Aviation of the University of New South Wales, Sydney, agrees with this sentiment. He firmly believes that there is no "magic safest seat" on a plane. Ed Galea, a professor of fire safety engineering at London's University of Greenwich, who has conducted extensive studies on plane crash evacuations, warns against placing too much emphasis on finding the "safest seat". He explains that the best chance of surviving an initial impact does not necessarily equate to a quick and successful evacuation.
On a positive note, Galea reassures us that the majority of aircraft accidents are survivable, with a survival rate of over 90%. This is due to the fact that modern planes are built to withstand high impact and slow down the spread of fire. He cites the Jeju Air crash as an example, stating that it could have been a survivable incident if not for the plane colliding with a reinforced obstacle at the end of the runway. On the other hand, the Azerbaijan Airlines crash was deemed non-survivable, and it is nothing short of a miracle that anyone made it out alive.
However, as suspicion grows surrounding the cause of the Azerbaijan crash, it is vital to remember that the majority of aircraft accidents are not caused by deliberate attacks. In fact, with the strict safety measures in place, the chances of surviving a survivable accident are high. What plays a crucial role in determining survival is how quickly and efficiently passengers can evacuate the plane.
Galea, who has conducted research for the UK's Civil Aviation Authority, explains that the key to survival is being close to an exit. His study, which analyzed data from 1,917 passengers and 155 crew involved in 105 accidents, showed that those seated within five rows of any emergency exit have the best chances of evacuating safely. Additionally, those in aisle seats have a greater chance than those in middle or window seats, as they have fewer people to get past to reach the exit. However, he acknowledges that not all exits may be usable in an incident, as seen in the Japan Airlines crash where only three out of eight evacuation slides were usable. In such cases, the exemplary behavior of crew and passengers plays a significant role in ensuring everyone's safety.
Galea continues to stress the importance of being prepared for any eventuality when flying. He urges passengers to familiarize themselves with the nearest exits and to have a plan in mind in case of an emergency. He also advises against taking chances and trying to spread one's chances by sitting between two exit rows. Instead, he recommends selecting one exit row and sitting as close to it as possible. And if that is not possible, his advice is to look for another flight.
In conclusion, while there may not be a "safest seat" on a plane, there are certainly steps one can take to increase their chances of survival in the event of an emergency. As Galea puts it, "chance favors the prepared mind". By being aware of what to do in such situations and staying close to an exit, we can significantly improve our chances of surviving a plane crash.
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