November 5th 2024.
The race for the next President of the United States is currently too close to call. It could either be Donald Trump or Kamala Harris who takes the reins of the country. As the world eagerly awaits the outcome, many are wondering what a Trump or Harris presidency would mean for other countries, including Australia. In this article, we will take a closer look at what could happen if Trump were to secure another term in office.
Trump's first term in office, which began in November 2016, was marked by several global challenges. However, since then, the world has seen significant shifts, which could potentially lead to a change in dynamics. Issues such as the conflict in the Middle East, Russia's threat to European security, and China's growing influence on the global economy now require new decisions and policies.
During Trump's previous term, Australia was led by two Liberal prime ministers, Malcolm Turnbull and Scott Morrison. If Trump is re-elected, he will now face a vastly different Australian leader in Labor Prime Minister Anthony Albanese. As the world braces for the possibility of a second Trump presidency, it is essential to consider the potential implications for Australia and its key interests.
One of the major concerns for Australia is the future of AUKUS - a trilateral security partnership between Australia, the UK, and the US. According to Hayley Channer, the director of economic security at the United States Studies Centre, AUKUS will continue regardless of who wins the election. However, there is a risk that Trump may view it as a deal that can be renegotiated for America's benefit. Despite this, there are many aspects of AUKUS that the US would still find appealing, such as developing future technologies like AI, hypersonics, and quantum computing.
Trump's close allies have also expressed their support for the AUKUS partnership, including his former national security advisor Robert O'Brien and his vice presidential candidate JD Vance. However, the economic implications of a Trump presidency are more challenging to predict. Trump has previously suggested imposing high tariffs on Chinese imports, which could potentially spark a trade war and worsen inflation globally. This, in turn, could make goods more expensive to produce, potentially impacting China's manufacturing and production sectors and having negative flow-on effects for Australia's economy.
One industry that is particularly concerned about a potential Trump victory is the Australian grain industry. With a significant portion of Australian grain exported each year, global markets are vital to its success. However, this reliance on international trade also makes it vulnerable to external shocks and events beyond its control.
The Indo-Pacific region is another area of interest, with Australia and Japan being close allies to the US in the region. According to Channer, regardless of whether it is Trump or Harris who wins the election, Australia is likely to fare better than other countries in the region. This is because Australia and the US have a strong strategic and economic relationship. Additionally, countries in the region are already familiar with Trump's style of operating, as they have experienced it during his first term. As a result, they have plans in place to engage with either a Trump or Harris administration.
In conclusion, as the world anxiously awaits the outcome of the US election, Australia is also bracing for the potential implications of a Trump or Harris presidency. While there are concerns about the future of international trade and relationships, there are also opportunities for collaboration and growth. As always, it is essential to stay informed and prepared for any outcome.
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