June 17th 2024.
According to a recent analysis by Bloomberg News and Airfinity Ltd., there has been a concerning surge in at least 13 diseases in the post-pandemic era. While scientists are still trying to understand the cause of this trend, they believe that the changes in baseline immunity due to COVID-19 may be a contributing factor.
As reported by Bloomberg, one popular theory that has emerged is known as "immunity debt." This theory suggests that during lockdowns, people's immune systems were protected, but once the world reopened, they became more susceptible to diseases. This is especially true for young people who were unable to build immunity through exposure to common illnesses in places like public schools. Dr. Cindy Yuan, a doctor of internal medicine in Shanghai, explained, "It's like the walls of the immune system are weakened, making it easier for various viruses to enter." She noted that her patient load has doubled from pre-COVID levels, with a continuous stream of infections ranging from mycoplasma to flu and COVID-19.
However, not all experts are convinced that immunity debt is the sole explanation for the rise in diseases. Ben Cowling, the chair of epidemiology at the University of Hong Kong, believes that increased surveillance and testing may also play a role in the higher rates of disease reporting. He stated, "Immunity debt does occur, but I don't think it's responsible for the significant epidemics we're seeing post-COVID."
Similarly, Christopher Murray, the director of the Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation, argues that there are likely multiple factors at play. He questioned, "Why would places that have done a good job with COVID-19 also have a higher rate of diseases? That seems counterintuitive." Murray also pointed out the impact of keeping elderly individuals alive, who are more vulnerable to diseases, and the potential combination of this with immunity debt.
Experts also note that the spread of misinformation about vaccines during the pandemic has led to a decline in childhood vaccinations. This, coupled with the rise in poverty seen globally, has created an ideal environment for communicable diseases to spread. Cowling specifically mentioned the decline in vaccinations as a contributing factor to the resurgence of diseases like measles, polio, and pertussis. Measles, in particular, serves as a warning sign for the potential rebound of other diseases, as it requires a 95% vaccination rate in children to prevent its spread. In the United States, where measles was once considered eradicated in 2000, there has been a resurgence due to decreased vaccinations among kindergarteners. Epidemiologist Katherine Wallace from the University of Illinois warned that this trend could signal a similar comeback for other diseases.
Jeremy Farrar, the chief scientist at the World Health Organization, pointed out the ripple effect of COVID-19 on various aspects of public health. He stated, "It's like a series of concentric circles." One of these circles includes the decline in vaccinations, which can lead to a resurgence of diseases. Farrar emphasized the importance of promoting science and vaccines and educating the public, rather than dismissing those who may be hesitant. He stated, "We can't just label people as anti-science or anti-vaccine and ignore them. We need to listen, explain, and try to reach everyone."
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