Experts believe Russian air defense fire may have caused the plane crash in Kazakhstan.

Experts believe Russian air defense systems may have caused the crash of an Azerbaijani airliner in Kazakhstan.

December 26th 2024.

Experts believe Russian air defense fire may have caused the plane crash in Kazakhstan.
An Azerbaijani airliner tragically crashed in Kazakhstan, leaving 38 out of the 67 passengers and crew members dead. According to aviation experts, the plane likely went down after being struck by Russian air defense systems. As the investigation into the crash continues, here are some important details to keep in mind.

The flight, operated by Azerbaijan Airlines, was originally headed from Baku to Grozny, a city in the North Caucasus region of Russia. However, for reasons that are still unclear, the plane was diverted and ended up attempting to land in Aktau, Kazakhstan after crossing the Caspian Sea. As seen in videos circulating online, the aircraft made a steep descent before crashing and bursting into flames about 3 kilometers away from Aktau's coast. Fortunately, 29 people were able to survive the initial impact and were quickly rushed to nearby hospitals for medical treatment.

In response to the tragedy, Azerbaijan declared a nationwide day of mourning and lowered their flags to half-mast. At noon, all traffic in the country came to a halt and sirens were sounded from ships and trains as a sign of respect. During a news conference, Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev stated that poor weather conditions were the reason for the plane's change in course.

As for the cause of the crash, authorities from Kazakhstan, Azerbaijan, and Russia are all conducting investigations. The company that manufactured the plane, Embraer, has also offered their assistance to the authorities. Preliminary information from Russia's civil aviation authority suggests that the pilots may have been forced to change their plans due to a bird strike and subsequently faced an emergency on board. However, some experts believe that the holes found in the plane's tail section indicate that it may have been hit by a surface-to-air missile launched by Russian air defense systems.

OPSGroup, a company that monitors global airspace, has analyzed the fragments of the crashed plane and concluded with a 90-99% probability that it was indeed struck by a missile. Another aviation security firm, Osprey Flight Solutions, has warned their clients that the plane was likely shot down by a Russian military air-defense system. According to their CEO, the company issued over 200 alerts about drone attacks and air defense systems in Russia during the war. Additionally, FlightRadar24, a website that tracks flight paths, noted that the aircraft experienced interference from strong GPS jamming, a tactic often used by Russia to protect against drone attacks.

The day after the crash, there is still no definitive answer as to what caused the plane to go down. Russian military expert Yan Matveyev has examined the images of the damaged tail section and believes it matches the effects of shrapnel from the Russian Pantsyr-S1 air defense system. However, it is unclear why the pilots chose to fly further east instead of attempting to land in Russia after being hit. Some speculate that they may have been restricted from landing at a closer airport and thought the damage was not critical.

In Azerbaijan, a news outlet called Caliber has also made claims that the plane was targeted by a Russian Pantsyr-S air defense system and was affected by jamming equipment as it approached Grozny. The outlet has raised questions about why the Russian authorities did not close the airport after a drone attack in the area and why the plane was not allowed to land at other nearby Russian airports. When asked about these allegations, a spokesperson for the Kremlin stated that it would be premature to make assumptions before the investigation is complete. Similarly, officials from Kazakhstan and Azerbaijan are refraining from speculating on the cause of the crash and are leaving it up to the investigators to determine the truth.

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