December 5th 2024.
According to the head of the UK's armed forces, the world is facing a critical moment in history - a third nuclear age. In a lecture at the Royal United Services Institute, Admiral Sir Tony Radakin stated that global power is shifting and this new age is upon us.
He explained that this third nuclear age is much more complex than the previous two. The first was characterized by the Cold War, while the second focused on disarmament efforts. However, this new age is defined by multiple and concurrent dilemmas, as well as the emergence of new nuclear and disruptive technologies. To make matters worse, the security architectures that were in place during the previous ages are now almost non-existent.
Radakin pointed to events such as Russia's war in Ukraine and ongoing conflicts in the Middle East as examples of how global stability has been upended. He also highlighted the deployment of North Korean troops on Russia's border with Ukraine as the most extraordinary development of the year. Additionally, Moscow's use of Iranian-supplied drones and threats to arm Yemen's Houthi rebels in retaliation to the West's support of Ukraine have raised concerns.
The situation has become even more tense with Russia's recent update to its nuclear doctrine, which came just two days after US President Joe Biden granted Ukraine permission to strike targets deep inside Russia with American-made weapons. However, Radakin reassures that there is only a remote chance of Russia attacking or invading NATO, as they are aware of the overwhelming response that would follow.
He emphasized the effectiveness of NATO's strategy of deterrence, but also stressed the need to constantly strengthen it in the face of a more dangerous Russia. Radakin also noted that global unease has divided the world into three groups. The first group includes authoritarian states such as Russia, China, North Korea, and Iran, who are seeking to challenge the global rules. The second group consists of responsible nations, mostly democracies, who are committed to partnership and maintaining stability and security. The third group is made up of countries who are hedging and trying to benefit from both sides.
In order to defeat their adversaries, NATO countries must maintain an advantage. Radakin cited an example of Israel's strike on Iran, which effectively destroyed their ability to produce ballistic missiles and took down most of their air defense system. He believes that Russia's actions demonstrate what not to do in a fight, while Israel's response has shown the advantage of modern ways of fighting.
In conclusion, Radakin stressed the importance of staying vigilant and maintaining a strong defense against the evolving threats of this third nuclear age. He urged NATO countries to work together and continue to innovate in order to stay ahead of their adversaries.
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