June 3rd 2024.
According to a recent update from the World Meteorological Organization, the intense El Niño event that occurred in 2023/24 and caused record-breaking temperatures and extreme weather patterns worldwide is expected to transition to La Niña conditions later this year. This news comes amid a weakening El Niño, which was responsible for scorching heatwaves in South Asia, including India and Pakistan, during the months of April and May.
While El Niño is typically associated with reduced monsoon winds and drier conditions in India, its counterpart, La Niña, brings about abundant rainfall during the monsoon season. The latest forecasts from the WMO Global Producing Centres of Long-Range Forecasts indicate an equal chance of either neutral conditions or a shift to La Niña during the months of June to August. However, the probability of La Niña conditions increases to 60% in July to September and 70% in August to November.
Just last month, the India Meteorological Department predicted above-normal rainfall during the monsoon season, with favorable La Niña conditions expected to take hold by August or September. The WMO also stated that the likelihood of El Niño returning during this time is very low.
In the past few months, the world has experienced its warmest April ever, and temperatures have been breaking records for 13 consecutive months. This has been attributed to the combination of a naturally occurring El Niño and the additional heat trapped in the atmosphere by human-made greenhouse gases.
The monsoon season is of great importance to India, as it plays a critical role in the country's agricultural sector, with 52% of the net cultivated area relying on it. It is also crucial for replenishing reservoirs that provide drinking water and generate power across the nation.
Overall, the transition from El Niño to La Niña conditions is expected to bring relief from the extreme heat and dry conditions experienced during the El Niño event. However, the WMO warns that we must continue to monitor the situation and prepare for any potential impacts of La Niña, such as heavy rainfall and floods.
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