November 9th 2024.
It was a tense and highly anticipated election night, with many states shifting towards the conservative side. But amidst all the red, there was one shining blue exception - Colorado. Despite projections showing former President Donald Trump winning the popular vote, Vice President Kamala Harris once again secured a double-digit victory for the Democratic ticket. This marks the first time in 20 years that a Republican nominee has won the popular vote, making Colorado's leftward shift even more remarkable.
According to a Washington Post model, Colorado may even end up being the only state to shift left since the 2020 election. As of Friday evening, with approximately 200,000 ballots still to be counted, Harris held a comfortable lead of 11.4 percentage points over Trump. This is in line with President Joe Biden's 13.5-percentage-point victory in the state. Experts predict that Harris may end up with a similar margin, solidifying Colorado as a stronghold for the Democrats.
Kevin Ingham, principal of Aspect Strategic, a Democratic polling firm, attributes Colorado's political stability to a few key factors. The state has a predominantly white population, with one of the highest rates of higher education attainment in the country. It is also not a very religious state, which are all demographics that Trump struggled to gain support from nationally.
In a statewide survey conducted in the final weeks leading up to the election, Aspect Strategic and New Bridge Strategy, a Republican firm, found that white voters in Colorado favored Harris over Trump by a margin of 53% to 45%. The gap was even wider among voters of color, with 63% supporting Harris and only 30% supporting Trump. College graduates also showed strong support for Harris, with 58% voting for her compared to 39% for Trump. On the other hand, those who attend religious services at least once a month overwhelmingly voted for Trump, while those who never attend favored Harris by a landslide.
It's worth noting that Colorado is one of the states with the highest percentage of people who never attend religious services, according to a separate survey by Pew. Ingham also points out that while there were some pockets of the state where Trump made gains among voters of color, the overall shift towards Harris among white voters offset this.
Lesley Dahlkemper, a Democratic commissioner in Jefferson County, believes that Harris' focus on addressing affordable housing played a significant role in securing votes in the state's fourth most populous county. She points out that in Jeffco alone, there is a demand for 20,000 new housing units, making home ownership a distant dream for many. Harris' proposed solutions, such as providing downpayment assistance and tax incentives for builders of starter homes, resonated with voters who are feeling the squeeze of the housing market.
Dahlkemper emphasizes that the results in Jefferson County were not solely based on partisan politics, but rather a reflection of the issues that truly matter to the community. As long as Democrats continue to deliver results and address people's needs, she believes that they will continue to hold onto their leadership positions.
It's no secret that Trump's victory in 2016 sparked a shift towards Democrats in several suburban Denver counties, including Jeffco. In contrast, Pitkin County, known for its affluent Aspen community, saw a slight shift towards the right in this election. However, this did not change the fact that Harris still won by a landslide, with a 44-percentage-point lead over Trump. Pitkin County Commissioner Francie Jacober suggests that the ongoing debate over Israel's actions in the Gaza Strip may have influenced some voters to lean towards the Republican side. She also believes that gender may have played a role, with some voters seeing Trump as a stronger leader because of his gender.
As the election results continue to be tallied, it's clear that Colorado remains an exception to the nationwide shift towards the right. With a strong showing for Harris and the Democrats, it's evident that the state's political landscape remains stable and driven by the issues that matter most to its residents.
In Tuesday's election, the majority of states took a significant shift towards the conservative side. However, amidst this trend, there seems to be one state that is bucking the trend: Colorado. Despite the national popular vote being projected to go to former President Donald Trump, it appears that the Democratic ticket, led by Vice President Kamala Harris, has once again secured a double-digit victory in the state. This result is quite remarkable, as it marks the first time in 20 years that a Republican nominee has garnered the popular vote.
According to a model by The Washington Post, when all ballots are counted, Colorado may even be the only state to have shifted towards the left since the 2020 election. As of Friday at 6:30 p.m., Harris has a lead of approximately 11.4 percentage points over Trump, with about 200,000 ballots still left to be counted across the state. This margin is quite similar to the 13.5-percentage-point lead that President Joe Biden had over Trump in the 2020 election. Various projections and a recent poll suggest that Harris may also end up with a similar margin of victory.
Kevin Ingham, principal of Aspect Strategic, a Democratic polling firm, attributes Colorado's political stability to a few key factors. Firstly, the state has a predominantly white population, and it also boasts the second-highest rate of higher education attainment in the country. Additionally, Colorado is not a very religious state, which are all demographic groups that Trump struggled to win over during his campaign.
Ingham notes that while Colorado as a whole remained stable politically, there were some noticeable shifts within the state. More diverse counties saw a shift towards Trump, while voters of color overwhelmingly voted for Harris. However, Ingham believes that this was offset by Harris' gains among white voters, who make up a larger share of the electorate in Colorado.
One of the counties that continued its leftward trend in this election was Jefferson County. The west suburban Denver county saw a one-percentage-point increase in Democratic support compared to the 2020 election, with Harris winning by a margin of 19 percentage points. Jefferson County Commissioner Lesley Dahlkemper, a Democrat, believes that Harris' plans to address affordable housing were a key factor in her victory in the county. She points out that the county is in dire need of 20,000 new housing units to meet the demand, and Harris' focus on housing affordability, especially for first-time homeowners, resonated with voters.
Dahlkemper also believes that the outcome in Jefferson County was less about partisan politics and more about addressing the needs of the community. As long as Democrats continue to deliver results on issues that matter to the people, she believes they will continue to hold onto their leadership positions. It is worth noting that Jefferson County is among several suburban Denver counties that have seen a shift towards the Democratic party since Trump's win in 2020.
In contrast to Jefferson County, Pitkin County, famous for its luxurious Aspen, saw a shift towards the right in this election. A map by The New York Times showed a 7.6-point shift towards the Republican side in the county's presidential results since 2020. However, Vice President Harris still won by a significant margin of 44 percentage points over Trump. Pitkin County Commissioner Francie Jacober believes that the recent political debate over Israel's war in the Gaza Strip may have influenced some voters to lean towards the Republican party, despite their usual political leanings. Jacober also suggests that gender may have played a role in the outcome, with some voters believing that Trump's masculinity made him a stronger candidate. However, she personally does not share this sentiment.
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