April 28th 2024.
The political climate in London is tense as UK Prime Minister Rishi Sunak once again avoids addressing the possibility of a July general election. After a rough set of local election results for the Tories, there is speculation that Sunak may be forced to make a decision sooner rather than later.
In response to the ongoing speculation, Sunak stated that he would not be providing any new information beyond what he has already shared, which is that the national election is likely to take place in the second half of the year. Most analysts in Westminster believe this means the election could occur in October or November, though technically it could also mean July.
However, if the Tories experience a major defeat in the upcoming mayoral and council elections on May 2, it could lead to a challenge to Sunak's leadership or push him towards considering an earlier election date. The recent defection of a former Conservative health minister to the Labour Party has only added to the growing unease among Tory MPs and put more pressure on the Prime Minister.
In an interview with Trevor Phillips on Sunday morning, recorded before the ex-minister's defection, Sunak was asked if "latter half of 2024" could possibly mean July. In response, Sunak stated, "I'm not going to say anything more than I've already said, I've been very clear about that." When pressed multiple times about ruling out July, he refused to do so, stating, "I'm not going to do that." However, he did acknowledge the importance of his job as Prime Minister and delivering for the country, stating, "Actually, Trevor, it's more important than your holiday or anyone's holiday."
The full interview will air on Sky News on Sunday morning. In less than a week, the Tories are expected to suffer significant losses in the council seats up for election, with their two most high-profile regional mayors facing challenging races. Some analysts predict that if West Midlands Mayor Andy Street and Tees Valley Mayor Ben Houchen are defeated, it could lead to a no-confidence vote against Sunak, with at least 52 Tory MPs needed to trigger one.
Rumours have been swirling in Westminster that Sunak may announce an election campaign as early as Monday in an attempt to prevent a possible challenge from restive MPs. However, Downing Street has dismissed these rumours. The latest possible date for the election would be January 28, 2025.
Sunak has been making efforts to solidify his position as Prime Minister this week, with several notable announcements, including the passing of Rwanda asylum legislation and a pledge to spend 2.5% of the gross domestic product on defence by 2030. Defence Secretary Grant Shapps has urged his colleagues not to try and remove Sunak before the general election, stating, "Now is not the time or place." He also reminded them that constantly changing leaders is not beneficial for the party.
According to a recent BMG survey for the i paper, voters who previously supported the Conservatives but have since abandoned the party would be more likely to vote for them under a different leader. The pressure is on for Sunak to navigate these uncertain times and lead his party to victory in the upcoming elections.
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