September 15th 2025.
The Brazilian Supreme Federal Court, the highest judicial authority in the country, made a groundbreaking decision on September 11th. They found former president Jair Bolsonaro guilty of attempting a coup d'état after losing the October 2022 presidential election to Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva. It was a momentous trial, and after careful consideration, the court sentenced Bolsonaro to 27 years and three months in prison - a punishment that reflects the gravity of his actions. Even six high-ranking officers, including three generals, were found guilty alongside Bolsonaro. However, given his age and fragile health at 70 years old, the sentence may be adjusted.
This verdict is a historic moment for Brazil. Never before has an attempted coup resulted in a conviction in the country's tumultuous political history. The decision was made even more significant by the fact that the deciding vote came from the only woman on the five-judge panel, Judge Cármen Lúcia. Bolsonaro is known for his misogyny and has made derogatory comments about women in the past, making this ruling all the more symbolic.
Despite pressure from Bolsonaro's supporters to push for an amnesty law, this ruling sends a clear message: democracy is upheld through fair elections, not by dismantling institutions. This is especially relevant in Brazil, as the country has a dark history of a military dictatorship from 1964 to 1985. During this time, there were widespread human rights violations, including repression, torture, and extrajudicial killings, all with the backing of the US government. Although a National Truth Commission documented these crimes, no one was ever held accountable. The return to civilian rule in the 1980s was a step towards progress, but Bolsonaro's presidency has reignited tensions by giving more political power to the armed forces.
Bolsonaro's conviction carries implications beyond Brazil's borders as well. During his presidency, he aligned himself closely with former US President Donald Trump. As the trial unfolded, Trump denounced it as a "witch hunt" and imposed punitive tariffs on Brazilian goods in retaliation. The guilty verdict on September 11th was swiftly condemned by the US, with Secretary of State Marco Rubio accusing Brazil of "political persecution" - a common tactic used by far-right groups worldwide to discredit judicial rulings. Rubio even threatened more reprisals, which could have the unintended consequence of pushing Brazil closer to Beijing, something that the US should want to avoid.
Now, all eyes turn to Brazil's 2026 presidential election. Unless Bolsonaro is successful in overturning his conviction and accompanying election ban, he will be unable to participate. Lula has yet to confirm his candidacy, but he is widely considered the frontrunner. However, a runoff against Tarcísio de Freitas, a former army captain often seen as Bolsonaro's political successor, could be a close race. Bolsonaro's conviction also risks painting him as a political martyr, which could rally support for other leaders who share his ideology. In fact, just days before the verdict, around 40,000 of his supporters gathered in Rio de Janeiro and São Paulo, demonstrating his continued influence. Nonetheless, the Supreme Court's ruling is a powerful statement, and it greatly reduces the likelihood of successful challenges to Brazil's democratic order, despite ongoing polarization.
This is in stark contrast to the United States' experience. While Brazil is holding a former leader accountable for undermining democracy, former President Trump has evaded prosecution despite his relentless campaign against the 2020 election, claiming it was fraudulent without providing any evidence. Even the brazen attack on the US Capitol on January 6th, 2021, which was a direct assault on American democracy, resulted in presidential pardons for many of those involved.
The ruling on September 11th in Brazil is not the end, but rather, the beginning. The country remains deeply divided, mirroring the divisions that have consumed other democracies, including the US and India. However, we must admire the strength shown by Brazil's judiciary. Despite facing many challenges, their unwavering stance proves one thing: the Brazilian justice system stands strong and firm.
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