November 3rd 2024.
According to a new study, as talented as monkeys may be, they won't be able to type out the complete works of William Shakespeare. This includes not only lengthy pieces, but even short books. This conclusion challenges the famous thought experiment known as the Infinite Monkey Theorem, which suggests that given an infinite amount of time or an infinite number of monkeys, one of them would eventually produce the works of Shakespeare by randomly pressing keys on a typewriter.
However, in a study published in the peer-reviewed journal Franklin Open, two mathematicians from Australia's University of Technology Sydney have rejected this theory as "misleading" within the constraints of our finite universe. They took a closer look at the Finite Monkeys Theorem, which considers the limitations of time and number of monkeys.
Their research was based on the assumption that the current population of around 200,000 chimpanzees would remain constant over the lifespan of the universe, which is estimated to be one googol years. They also assumed that each chimpanzee would be able to type one key per second, 24 hours a day, for their entire lifespan of just over 30 years.
Based on these assumptions, the researchers calculated that there is only a 5% chance that a simple word such as "bananas" would appear in the lifespan of one chimpanzee. In fact, they found that a short sentence like "I chimp, therefore I am" would "almost certainly never be produced by any currently living chimp," according to Stephen Woodcock, one of the study's co-authors and a mathematician at the University of Technology Sydney.
As the scale increases to a full book, the likelihood of it being produced decreases by billions and billions of times, Woodcock explained. He and his co-author, Jay Falletta, a senior research consultant at the university, concluded that even with more chimpanzees or faster typing, it is "not plausible" for monkeys to ever be able to create anything beyond trivial written works.
In other words, as Woodcock put it, "Even if every atom in our known universe were its own universe, we would still have almost no chance of seeing anything as lengthy as a short book before the end of the universe." This includes books such as Curious George, which is approximately 1800 words long.
Chris Banerji, an interdisciplinary clinician-scientist and theme lead for Clinical AI at the Alan Turing Institute in London, agrees that the chances of monkeys randomly typing Shakespeare's works are slim. He told CNN on Friday that the Finite Monkeys Theorem is accurate, but he also believes that the Infinite Monkey Theorem still holds.
According to Banerji, "While the situation may seem dire, there is still hope for the monkeys." He explains that the universe is vast, and there is room for many more chimps than the ones currently living on Earth. Under certain cosmological theories, there could even be infinite space or multiple universes. In that case, Banerji says, "the monkeys' successful replication of Shakespeare is an eventual certainty," as the Infinite Monkey Theorem states.
He quotes the Bard, saying, "Until I know this sure uncertainty, I'll entertain the offered fallacy." Banerji was not involved in the study, but he suggests that if we accept the possibility of infinite worlds, then the monkeys' success is guaranteed. The Infinite Monkey Theorem still holds true in that sense. "In the words of the Bard, 'Until I know this sure uncertainty, I'll entertain the offered fallacy'," he adds.
In conclusion, the study shows that while the Infinite Monkey Theorem may be true in theory, it is not applicable in our finite universe. Even though the idea of monkeys randomly typing Shakespeare's works may seem like a fun thought experiment, it is not a realistic possibility. So, unless we discover infinite worlds or somehow reach infinity in terms of resources, the likelihood of monkeys producing Shakespeare's works is extremely low.
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