The Middle East experienced a meaningful escalation of conflict as Iran struck Israel directly attacking with more than 350 weapons that Israel fended off with direct assistance from the United States, England, France, Jordan, Saudi Arabia, and its own organic anti-air weapons.
In addition, Qatar, the United Arab Emirates, Kuwait, and Bahrain provided early warning of Iranian weapons in the air enroute to Israel and other intelligence.
Until this direct attack, Iran had been content to make war against Israel using proxies such as Hamas and Hezbollah.
In retaliation, Israel struck seven Iranian targets including launch sites for the Iranian attack on Israel and cities that host important Iranian nuclear enrichment and missile testing sites.
Ahhh, dear reader, it is important to understand from whence the conflict started. Like all conflicts, it started with an unprovoked attack on Israel.
1. At the end of the Trump admin, Israel and Saudi Arabia were just about to ink an agreement — the Abraham Accords being a crowning achievement of that admin and the most significant Middle East peace initiative since 1948 — formalizing a normalization of relations, an elusive idea decades in the making.
2. On 7 October 2023, Hamas — an Iranian funded, trained, and supplied surrogate — unleashed the greatest murdeous attack against Jewish civilians since the Holocaust committing unspeakable atrocities against babies, children, mothers, women, elderly, and men.
3. In retaliation, Israel attacked Hamas in Gaza to destroy it thereby triggering a wave of Arab sentiment in favor of the Palestinians and against Israel.
4. The Israel – Saudi Arabia rapprochment died an ugly death — undoubtedly one of the objectives (if not the critical objective) of the Iranian backed Hamas attack.
5. On 1 April 2024, Israel unleashed a precision air attack against the Iranian embassy in Damascus, Syria to kill what they described as some of the Iranian masterminds of the Hamas attack.
Embassies are considered sovereign territory of the country.
6. Iran retaliated for the Israeli attack on the Iranian embassy in Damascus with the 350+ weapon attack on 13 April 2024.
7. Israel retaliated for the Iranian attack on the Israel homeland early 19 April 2024 with their attack on the seven targets noted above — all launch sites for the Iranian 13 April attack and/or nuclear sites.
There are several significant learnings for the world:
1. We have escalated from Trump era Abraham Accord peace to direct conflict between Iran and Israel. This is not a good developnent and will take some considerable time and effort — change of leadership, regime change — to calm down.
2. A coalition of unlikely countries came to the aid of Israel. This is quite amazing.
Before we make too much of this fledgling alliance, know that if you are Jordan, Iraq, Saudi Arabia and a drone is identified crossing your air space, it is a knee jerk reaction to shoot it down regardless of its intended destination. Do not read too much into this cooperation.
3. Iranian weapons are ineffective against run-of-the=mill Israeli air defense weapons even when deployed in mass.
4. Israeli weapons — apparently both missiles and drones but not aircraft — pierced ineffective Iranian anti-air capabilities with ease and delivered powerful ordnance on critical targets.
If there was any doubt that Israel could reach Iranian nuclear weapons development sites, that question is now answered.
These Iranian sites may be far underground, but their power supplies and power transmission facilities are above ground.
Fine, dear reader.
We have seen a major escalation of the Israel v Iran conflict from proxies to direct conflict. I suspect the Iranians have seen enough of it already.
There is a fledgling alliance emerging against Iran in the Middle East. This could be a very powerful dynamic and the US should blow on the embers and help it happen.
It cannot really happen until Israel finishes wiping out Hamas and some solution on Gaza is created.
Iran will undoubtedly now threaten the world with escalation of their nuclear enrichment and nuclear bomb making program. This was always in the cards and why the Obama era 2015 JCPOA (Joint Comprehebsive Plan of Action) was always a head fake.
The Obama and Biden (hat tip to John Kerry for being a stooge) admin attempts to forestall Iranian nuclear development have been a collosal failure and Iran has gleefully outplayed and tricked the US at every turn.
The big difference is the world and Iran now know authoritatively that the Israelis acting alone can destroy those facilities with ease — not the underground ones, but all the infrastructure supporting them. No electricity, no water — no enrichment.
I wonder why Nato would not consider such a purely defensive assist to Ukraine — shooting down unprecedented Russian missile and drone attacks on Ukraine?
Why would we do this for Israel, but not Ukraine?
But, hey, what the Hell do I really know anyway? I’m just a Big Red Car.
Have a great weekend and call someone who you haven’t spoken to in a long time. Make peace with yourself.
