August 20th 2024.
The news of the sinking of the luxurious yacht, Bayesian, has shocked the world. The yacht, which was anchored off the coast of Sicily, was hit by a sudden and violent storm, causing it to capsize. Witnesses reported seeing a waterspout tearing through the seas at the time of the sinking, leading to speculation that this ocean phenomenon could have been the cause. But what exactly is a waterspout and how likely is it that it could have sunk a yacht?
To put it simply, a waterspout is like a small tornado over water. Instead of just wind, it is a combination of air and water mist, swirling in a column. According to Dr Jian-Guo Li, a senior modelling scientist, waterspouts are an atmospheric tornado happening over the water surface. They can last up to 20 minutes and there are two types: tornadic and fair weather waterspouts. The former starts as a tornado on land and moves to water, while the latter forms during calmer conditions and stretches from the water towards the clouds.
Waterspouts are more common than their land-dwelling counterpart, the tornado, and are usually milder. They are most likely to be found in tropical and sub-tropical seas, such as the Mediterranean, but can also occur in the UK. However, they are not something to be overly worried about, according to experts. While they can reach wind speeds of up to 150mph, they usually don't cause much damage due to the lack of buildings at sea. But at the more intense end of the scale, they can be dangerous, similar to tornadoes.
The yacht, Bayesian, was hit by a violent storm predicted by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts. It was described as brief but intense, with strong gusts of wind and lightning flashes. According to reports, the winds were around 40mph at the time of the sinking. Dr Pete Inness, an Undergraduate Programme Director, explains that winds of this strength, combined with the location of the boat, could have caused it to capsize. He speculates that the crew and passengers would have had little time to react, as things happen quickly within a waterspout.
The yacht was carrying 21 people, 15 of whom managed to escape. Sadly, one person, the ship's cook, lost his life and six others, including a well-known software mogul and his daughter, are still missing. The 56-metre-long yacht, with its 75-metre-high aluminium mast, was a sight to behold. However, this mast may have played a role in the sinking, as it is speculated to have snapped during the storm. Dr Inness suggests that the rapid changes in wind speed and direction within the waterspout could have caused the boat to rock violently, leading to its capsizing.
The sinking of Bayesian has raised questions about the dangers of waterspouts. While they are not uncommon, deadly waterspouts are very rare. In fact, the deadliest waterspout on record occurred in 1550 in Valletta, Malta. A tornadic waterspout erupted in the Grand Harbour, causing the drowning of 600 knights, soldiers, and slaves, along with the flipping of four Maltese navy ships.
As investigations into the sinking of Bayesian continue, experts stress that it is hard to say for sure what caused the yacht to capsize. However, it is clear that the violent storm and potential waterspout played a role in this tragedy. Weather forecasting and understanding of ocean phenomena have come a long way, but there are still unpredictable elements that can cause destruction at sea. Our thoughts go out to the loved ones of those who were on board the Bayesian.
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