May 21st 2024.
It is a tragic and ironic turn of events that Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, along with other high-ranking officials, met their untimely end on May 20th when their helicopter crashed in a foggy mountain region in the northwestern part of the country. What makes this even more unfortunate is that the chopper was actually manufactured in the United States, the very country that Iran considers its enemy. The maintenance of the helicopter had been neglected due to the lack of spare parts, which were not available as a result of the sanctions imposed by the US and its allies. The Bell helicopter had been purchased by Iran in the early 2000s, but like many other aircraft in the country, it faced shortages of vital parts, leading to safety checks being neglected. Former Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif, in an interview after the tragic news broke, placed the blame squarely on the US, stating that their embargo on aircraft and aviation parts had deprived the Iranian people of proper aviation facilities. He went as far as to call it another crime in the long list of US atrocities against the Iranian people. However, it is hard to believe that the helicopter carrying the President, one of the most powerful figures in the country, had not undergone rigorous safety checks before the flight.
The outpouring of anger and frustration following this incident reveals the true state of the regime, now headed by 63-year-old Raisi, as it grapples with its worst crisis. This comes at a time when the Middle East is facing turmoil due to the ongoing conflict between Israel and Hamas, which has also affected neighboring countries, including Iran. Raisi, under the guidance of Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, had recently launched a drone and missile attack on Israel, further escalating tensions in the region. As a conservative cleric and former judiciary chief, Raisi has been a subject of international scrutiny for his brutal crackdown on dissent and suppression of individual freedoms in Iran. He has been accused of playing a key role in the arrest, torture, and execution of thousands of the regime's opponents.
Educated in the seminary city of Qom since the age of 18, Raisi earned the nickname "the butcher" for his alleged involvement in the mass execution of political prisoners in the late 1980s, according to sources from Iran's opposition. During his time as judiciary chief, he was responsible for the arrest and execution of numerous protesters who opposed the regime in 2019-2020. His actions came under sharp criticism when he crushed the "Women, Life, Freedom" movement that emerged after the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, using brutal force to quell the protests. Tens of thousands were arrested, and the death toll is estimated to be over 500.
Raisi was seen as a top contender to replace the ailing 85-year-old Khamenei as the supreme leader, owing to his unwavering loyalty to the regime and its harsh methods. However, his lack of competence in managing the country's troubled economy raised doubts about his suitability for the role. Furthermore, his credibility was called into question after his controversial victory in the 2021 presidential election, where his opponents were systematically disqualified, and the voter turnout was at a record low. Many people chose not to vote, while those who did purposely spoiled their ballots as a sign of their disapproval of the candidate. With his sudden death, speculation arises that Khamenei's son, Mojtaba, may now emerge as the leading candidate to succeed his father.
Under Raisi's leadership, Iran's foreign policy was marked by direct confrontations with the West, with frequent threats of an all-out war against Israel during the ongoing conflict in Gaza. He also provided military support and weapons to Vladimir Putin's Russia in the Ukraine-Russia war. Iran's ties with China, under the leadership of Xi Jinping, were strengthened through various collaborations, the sale of oil to China, and the presence of numerous Chinese companies in Iran. It is unlikely that Iran's stance on the ongoing Hamas-Israel conflict and attacks on Israel by Iran-backed groups like the Houthis and Hezbollah will change after Raisi's death. In fact, the situation may become even more complex until a suitable replacement for Raisi is found.
In summary, the geopolitical landscape in the Middle East and its surrounding regions is headed towards an uncertain and potentially tumultuous phase. This is not only detrimental to the region but also has significant implications for the global economy and peace.
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