September 22nd 2024.
It has been 45 years since an American satellite detected two bright flashes in the Indian Ocean, and yet, we still do not have a definitive explanation for what caused them. The Vela satellite, designed to spot nuclear explosions, was orbiting near South Africa's Prince Edward Islands when it detected the double flash just before 1am UTC. This was during a time when the Partial Nuclear Test Ban Treaty, which banned all test detonations of nuclear weapons unless they were carried out underground, was in effect and being upheld by 126 countries.
Even now, most experts believe that an unauthorized nuclear test is the most likely explanation for the double flash. However, no one has ever taken responsibility for it, leaving the event shrouded in mystery. So, let's take a closer look at the facts, opinions, and theories surrounding these mysterious flashes.
The double flash was first spotted in the Indian Ocean, and the American Vela satellite picked it up just before 1am UTC on September 22, 1979. It was believed that the flashes could have been caused by an atmospheric nuclear explosion with a yield of two to three kilotonnes, equivalent to 2-3,000 tonnes of TNT. In an attempt to confirm this, the US Air Force used sound data to analyze whether a nuclear detonation had occurred. However, the data did not provide any substantial evidence.
The US Air Force also conducted atmospheric sampling and analyzed wind patterns in the area where the flashes were detected, and they concluded that any fallout from a nuclear explosion would have been carried to southwest Australia. Low levels of iodine, a short-half-life product of nuclear fission, were found in sheep in southeastern Australian states of Victoria and Tasmania, further indicating the possibility of a nuclear blast.
After news of the double flash went public, the US Defense Department suggested that it could have been a bomb blast or a natural occurrence, such as lightning, a meteor, or even a glint from the sun. However, the Vela-5A/B satellite was specifically equipped with sensors to spot nuclear explosions, and the US National Security Council initially had "high confidence" that the flashes were a low-yield nuclear explosion. Later, they revised their assessment to "inconclusive" but still suspected that South Africa's weapons program was responsible.
In the 1980s, then-US President Jimmy Carter asked the American Office of Science and Technology Policy to re-examine the data as part of his re-election campaign, which focused on nuclear disarmament and non-proliferation. A panel of independent scientific and engineering experts re-analyzed the Vela satellite data and other data collected during the investigation. They could not definitively rule out a nuclear blast, but based on their expertise, they believed that the double flash was probably not caused by a nuclear explosion.
But if it wasn't a nuclear explosion, then what was it? One of the main suspects was South Africa, as they had a clandestine nuclear weapons program at the time, despite being a signatory of the Partial Test Ban Treaty. Additionally, the location of the double flashes between the southern tip of Africa and Antarctica raised suspicion. However, the International Atomic Energy Agency stated that South Africa could not have constructed a nuclear bomb until November 1979, two months after the incident. Plus, they believed that all possible South African nuclear bombs had been accounted for.
Israel was also considered a potential culprit, and some experts believe that the double flashes could have been an Israeli test conducted in cooperation with South Africa. It was widely known that Israel had its own nuclear weapons, and some journalists even speculated that this was one of several joint tests with South Africa in the Indian Ocean. Seymour Hersh, a journalist, believed that the Israeli Defense Force sent two ships and "a contingent of Israeli military men and nuclear experts" for the test. Author Richard Rhodes suggested that the US covered up this cooperation to avoid complicating their relations with both countries. Leonard Weiss, a researcher at Stanford University, said, "The weight of the evidence that the Vela event was an Israeli nuclear test assisted by South Africa appears overwhelming."
The Soviet Union was also a suspect, as they had previously carried out underwater nuclear tests in the Pacific, in violation of a moratorium with the US. India, which had conducted nuclear tests in 1974, was also considered a potential culprit, as it was possible that the Indian Navy could have operated in the southern waters where the double flash was detected. However, India was quickly ruled out as they were not trying to hide their nuclear weapons capability at the time. Pakistan was also a suspect, as they may have wanted to secretly demonstrate their nuclear technology. And because the double flash happened near the French-owned Kerguelen Islands, France was also a suspect, as they may have been testing a small neutron or tactical nuclear bomb.
But even with all these potential suspects, no country has ever claimed responsibility for the double flashes or explained what caused them. Over the years, some information has been declassified, such as a report from the Central Intelligence Agency-sponsored panel of scientists who concluded that the flash was likely a nuclear test. In 2017, a new study debunked the theory that the Vela satellite's reading was caused by a meteor collision. And in 2022, another study analyzed readings from a NASA satellite and found evidence of a trace left by the blast's shockwave in the ozone layer.
So, while the scientific consensus strongly suggests that this was a nuclear test, and the political consensus leans towards it being carried out by both South Africa and Israel, we still do not have a concrete answer nearly half a century later. The mystery of the double flashes spotted by the Vela satellite 45 years ago continues to intrigue and perplex experts and remains unsolved to this day.
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