August 10th 2025.
In February 2018, the Trump administration unveiled their 'US strategic framework for the Indo-Pacific'. This document, which was recently declassified in January 2021, outlined America's plan to maintain their strategic dominance in the region while also preventing China from establishing any new spheres of influence that went against their beliefs. The paper also acknowledged that China's growing power would have a significant impact on the region and could potentially challenge America's global influence. As a result, the US saw a strong partnership with India as essential in countering China's rise. Their ultimate goal was to establish a quadrilateral framework that included India, Japan, Australia, and the US, with the primary focus being on containing China. This plan involved making India a 'Major Defense Partner' and working together to ensure maritime security and limit China's influence.
But why did India agree to this partnership? That is still unclear. Prime Minister Modi began steering India towards this strategic alliance with the US without any discussions in parliament, interviews with the media, or even mentioning it in his manifestos. In February 2020, during President Trump's visit to India, just days before the Ladakh crisis, Modi committed India to the agreement against China.
Later on, during US Defense Secretary Mike Pompeo's visit in October 2020, India signed the Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement, which would allow them access to American intelligence and improve the accuracy of their military's weapons and drones. This also opened the door for potential air force-to-air force cooperation. The second agreement signed was the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement, which allowed both countries' militaries to access and replenish supplies, spare parts, and services from each other's facilities. This agreement was mainly focused on navy-to-navy cooperation. During the signing of the BECA pact, Pompeo directly attacked China, stating that the US and India were working together to combat all kinds of threats, not just those posed by the Chinese Communist Party. The US Secretary of State also highlighted the importance of a free and open Indo-Pacific, particularly in light of China's aggressive and destabilizing actions. However, India's Defense Minister Rajnath Singh and Foreign Minister Jaishankar, who were both standing next to the US officials, did not mention China by name. Singh's prepared statement even included a line about defending against "reckless aggression on our northern borders," but it was later deleted. This deletion was not communicated to the Indian translator, who read the original text, and the Americans released it. Despite China's criticism of the US document, India did not publicly react to its release.
Six months after the US unveiled its Indo-Pacific strategy, India signed the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement, which granted them access to encrypted communications equipment and systems. This allowed for secure communication between Indian and US military commanders, as well as their respective aircraft and ships. These three pacts, together known as the "foundational pacts," solidified deep military cooperation between the two countries. Interestingly, the last agreement, COMCASA, was signed just five months after Modi traveled to Wuhan to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping. The "Wuhan spirit" emphasized cooperation and non-rivalry between the two countries, including pushing for increased trade and investment. However, it was becoming clear that Modi was trying to play both sides, reaching out to Xi while also aligning with the US.
China's response to this was to activate the Ladakh border, forcing India to focus its military resources on land rather than the sea. Former national security advisor MK Narayanan, writing on the same day that the casualties in Ladakh were revealed, warned Modi against becoming a pawn in a "belligerent coalition" against China. He reminded him that all border agreements between India and China were based on the idea that both countries remained neutral towards each other. This sentiment was especially evident during Narayanan's time as the Special Representative for Border Talks with China. He also highlighted the importance of adhering to agreements, both formal and informal, that India had signed up for.
Why am I bringing up events from years ago? Because, as we can see from the recent events, they are still relevant and essential in understanding why India finds itself in its current position: confused and alone. Under this government's leadership, India has taken steps to undo agreements made in the past, giving China more room to maneuver and fewer consequences for their actions. It is crucial to understand the value and significance of treaties and commitments, both written and unwritten, that have been made in the past. These agreements shape our relationships with other countries and can have a significant impact on our security and standing in the world.
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