July 4th 2024.
It seems like the Tories are in for a rough ride in the upcoming general election, with some of their biggest names predicted to lose their seats. According to the latest polling, high-profile figures such as Grant Shapps, Jeremy Hunt, and Penny Mordaunt are at risk of being unseated, along with half of the Cabinet.
The final round of polling has once again shown a strong lead for the Labour party, suggesting that they may even surpass Tony Blair's landslide victory in 1997. A recent study by More in Common has projected that Labour could secure around 430 seats, while Survation's survey of over 34,000 people indicates that their tally could reach anywhere between 447 and 517 seats.
The polls have also highlighted some key battlegrounds, with three MRP polls focusing on constituency-level results in addition to the national picture. In each model, the Liberal Democrats are predicted to take two key Tory seats – Godalming and Ash in Surrey, where Jeremy Hunt is standing, and Cheltenham in Gloucestershire, contested by Alex Chalk.
It's a worrying sign for the Tories, as more than half of the Cabinet is at risk of losing their seats. Let's take a closer look at who they are:
- Jeremy Hunt, Chancellor of the Exchequer and Conservative MP for South West Surrey, is facing tough competition in the new constituency of Godalming and Ash due to a boundary review. YouGov predicts that the Liberal Democrats could win this seat from him.
- Grant Shapps, Defence Secretary and Conservative MP for Welwyn Hatfield, won his seat with a majority of 10,955 in the 2019 election. However, he could now lose it to Labour, the party he first won it from in 2005.
- Penny Mordaunt, Leader of the House of Commons and Conservative MP for Portsmouth North, became a well-known political figure during the King's coronation. However, her seat is likely to be won by Labour, according to YouGov. In 2019, she won with a majority of 15,780.
- Johnny Mercer, Veterans Minister and Conservative MP for Plymouth Moor View, has held his seat since 2015, but Labour is predicted to take it in the upcoming election. In 2019, he won with a majority of 12,897.
- Alister Jack, Scotland Secretary and Conservative MP for Dumfries and Galloway, has announced that he will stand down in the next election. However, his seat could be in danger from the SNP, as he won with a majority of only 1,805 in 2019.
- Victoria Prentis, Attorney General and Conservative MP for Banbury, has served since 2015 in a constituency that has been held by a Tory MP since the 1920s. But with boundary changes, the new Banbury constituency could be won by Labour, according to YouGov.
- Alex Chalk, Justice Secretary and Conservative MP for Cheltenham, won his seat with a slim majority of 981 over the Liberal Democrats in 2019. However, the Lib Dems could win the seat back in 2024.
- David TC Davies, Wales Secretary and Conservative MP for Monmouthshire, will stand in the new Monmouthshire constituency in the upcoming election. However, YouGov suggests that Labour could take this seat from him.
- Gillian Keegan, Education Secretary and Conservative MP for Chichester, won her seat with a majority of 21,490 in the 2019 election. While she is not predicted to lose her seat in YouGov's latest polling, there have been warnings that she could.
The situation is particularly tense in Chichester, where the Liberal Democrats are predicted to win by both YouGov and Survation. More in Common has also listed Portsmouth North, contested by Penny Mordaunt, as a seat that is "too close to call", with indications from YouGov and Survation that Labour could make gains there.
On the other hand, Labour is expected to secure wins in Welwyn Hatfield, Monmouthshire, Banbury, and Plymouth Moor View. But there could be an upset in Islington North, where former Labour leader Jeremy Corbyn is running as an independent. According to More in Common, there is a 91% chance that he will win, but Survation has suggested that Labour could still come out on top.
Overall, the latest polling averages put Labour at 39%, with the Conservatives trailing behind at 21%, followed by Reform at 16%, the Lib Dems at 11%, and the Greens at 6%. These numbers have shifted slightly from the previous week, where Labour had 41%, Conservatives had 20%, Reform had 16%, Lib Dems had 11%, and Greens had 6%. On the day that Prime Minister Rishi Sunak called for the general election, the averages stood at Labour 45%, Conservatives 23%, Reform 11%, Lib Dems 9%, and Greens 6%.
It remains to be seen how these predictions will play out in the actual election, but it's clear that both parties are gearing up for a fierce battle. Stay tuned for more updates and analysis on the policies and issues that matter to you. Don't forget to sign up for our newsletter and follow us on social media for the latest news and opinions.
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