July 21st 2025.
China begins construction of $167.8 billion dam on the Brahmaputra River in Tibet, near the Indian border in Arunachal Pradesh. This major project is expected to have significant impacts on the region's environment and give China more power over India, which is downstream. The scale of this dam is larger than any other infrastructure project in the world, including China's own Three Gorges Dam, which is so big it can supposedly be seen from space.
The Brahmaputra, also known as the Yarlung Tsangpo, starts at the Angsi Glacier near Gang Rinpoche in Tibet. It then flows through the Tibetan Plateau, creating the world's deepest canyon. The dam is being built in a crucial gorge in the Himalayan region where the river makes a sharp turn before entering Arunachal Pradesh and eventually flowing into the Bay of Bengal through Bangladesh. Additionally, the project is situated near a boundary between tectonic plates. The Tibetan Plateau, also known as the "roof of the world," is prone to earthquakes as it sits between the Indian and Eurasian plates.
In 2006, India and China established a mechanism for experts to discuss issues related to shared rivers, including the Brahmaputra. China used to share vital information about the river's water levels during flood season, but has stopped doing so since 2022. This decision coincides with the expiration of previous agreements and an increase in dam construction in Tibet, causing concern for India. For example, the Zam Hydropower Station, which India had previously raised concerns about, has been operational since 2015 and is the largest dam in Tibet.
The Brahmaputra is a crucial source of freshwater for India, providing about one-third of the country's reserves and over 40% of its hydropower potential. The lack of access to upstream data puts India at risk of ecological, economic, and strategic consequences, particularly in the northeastern states. There are also concerns that China could use the dam to manipulate water levels and cause flooding in India without warning. Arunachal Pradesh Chief Minister Pema Khandu has even referred to the dam as a potential "water bomb" that China could use against India.
Pakistan, on the other hand, sees this dam project as a strategic advantage, strengthening its alliance with China and countering Indian influence in the region. This is especially important in the context of the Indus Waters Treaty between India and Pakistan. The treaty, signed in 1960, has endured through three wars between the two countries. However, India has recently threatened to divert water from Pakistan in retaliation for a terrorist attack. This has only added to the tension between the two countries, with Indian leaders stating that they will not give "even a drop of water" to Pakistan.
Unlike the Indus Waters Treaty, China is not bound by any water-sharing agreements with India. In fact, China's relationship with India has been strained recently due to border disputes and deteriorating relations with neighboring countries. Under these circumstances, a water conflict with China is something India would struggle to handle.
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